The Impact of Road Geometric Formation on Traffic Crash and Its Severity Level

Debela Jima and Tibor Sipos
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Debela Jima: Department of Transportation and Vehicle Engineering, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Műegyetem Rakpart 3, 1111 Budapest, Hungary
Tibor Sipos: Department of Transport Technology and Economics, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Műegyetem Rakpart 3, 1111 Budapest, Hungary

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 14, 1-25

Abstract: Road infrastructure has an impact on the occurrence of road traffic crashes. The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of road geometric formation on road traffic crashes. Based on the nature, convenience, and availability of data, the study used Budapest city road traffic crash data from 2017 to 2021. For organizing, analysis, and modeling, the study used Microsoft-Excel, the Statistical Package for Social Science, and Quantum Geographic Information System. Relative frequency distribution, Multinomial Logistic Regression, Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network, and Severity Index were used for the analysis. Both inferential and descriptive statistics are used to describe and summarize the study outcome. Multicollinearity tests, p -value, overdispersion, percent of incorrect error, and other statistical model testes were undertaken to analyze the significance of the data and variable for modeling and analysis. A large number of crashes were observed in straight and one-lane road geometric formationsr890. However, the severity level was high at the horizontal curve and in all three lanes of the road. The regression model indicated that light conditions, collision type, road geometry, and speed had a significant effect on traffic accidents at a p -value of 0.05. A collision between the vehicle (rear end collision), and a vehicle with a pedestrian was the probable cause of the crash. The Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network indicated that horizontally curved geometry has a positive and strong relationship with road traffic fatalities. The primary reasons for the occurrences of a road traffic crash at an intersection, horizontal curve, and straight road geometric formation were the improper use of road traffic signs, road pavement condition, and stopping sight distance problems, respectively. The hourly distribution showed that from 16:01 to 17:00 time interval was a peak hour for the occurrences of road traffic crashes. Whereas, driver plays vital role and responsible body for the occurrences of crashes at all geometric formations.

Keywords: multilayer perceptron artificial neural network; multinomial logistic regression; quantum geographic information system; road traffic crash; severity index (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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