Management and Policy Modeling of the Market Using Artificial Intelligence

Qunpeng Fan
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Qunpeng Fan: School of Management, Jilin Normal University, Siping 136000, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 14, 1-14

Abstract: This paper investigates the market management and modeling based on advanced artificial intelligence. The proposed model deploys the combination of the support vector machine and fuzzy set theory to provide a practical and powerful prediction model for the market price over the next day. A realistic and effective model is then introduced to model the market players, such as the renewable energy sources of solar and wind turbines, as well as the fossil-fueled sources of micro turbines and fuel cells. In order to provide an optimal management program, it introduces a stochastic framework based on the point estimate method and adaptive grey wolf optimization algorithm (GWO). The proposed optimization methods use an adaptive strategy to choose the most fitting modification for enhancing the GWO performance. A realistic scenario is simulated to demonstrate the model’s effectiveness and impression on the real market management. The results clearly show the effectiveness of the prediction and management model. The prediction results show the superiority of the proposed model by RMSE of 2.9643 compared to the 3.217 for SVR, 3.2364 for ANN and 3.0621 for the grey model. Moreover, the optimal MAPE is 2.7453 by the proposed method, which is much better than the 3.052 by SVR, 3.1552 by ANN and 2.9285 by the grey model. From point of view of optimization, the most fitting power dispatch has been attained with the total cost of 300.8632 over 24 h.

Keywords: market price prediction; modeling and management; optimization; renewable energy sources (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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