System Thinking Approach toward Reclamation of Regional Water Management under Changing Climate Conditions

Ali Sheikhbabaei, Aida Hosseini Baghanam, Mahdi Zarghami, Sepideh Pouri and Elmira Hassanzadeh
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Ali Sheikhbabaei: Department of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz, Tabriz 51666-16471, Iran
Aida Hosseini Baghanam: Department of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz, Tabriz 51666-16471, Iran
Mahdi Zarghami: Department of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz, Tabriz 51666-16471, Iran
Sepideh Pouri: Department of Architecture and Urban Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Tabriz 51666-16471, Iran
Elmira Hassanzadeh: Department of Civil, Geological, and Mining Engineering, Polytechnique Montréal, Montreal, QC H3T 1J4, Canada

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 15, 1-20

Abstract: This paper represents a streamflow prediction model with the approach of ensemble multi-GCM downscaling and system dynamics (SD) for the Aji-Chay watershed located in northwest Iran. In this study, firstly, the precipitation and temperature projection for the future was assessed according to the climate change impact using a statistical downscaling technique, i.e., Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG); secondly, a rainfall-runoff model for future horizons was developed according to artificial neural networks (ANN); finally, an SD model was developed according to plausible reclamation scenarios, i.e., cloud seeding, increasing the irrigation efficiency and reducing agricultural production, controlling policies on groundwater withdrawal as well as environmental awareness, and cultivation to reduce domestic consumption to achieve sustainable development. For downscaling purposes, the outputs of four general circulation models (GCMs) including EC-EARTH, HadGEM2, MIROC5, MPI-ESM from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) were applied. The results of multi-GCM downscaling indicated an ascending trend of 0.1 °C to +1.3 °C for temperature and a descending trend of 17 to 23% for precipitation by 2040 under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Moreover, the results of the SD model revealed that none of the individual reclamation scenarios were impressive on water balance sustainable conditions; instead, the simultaneous implementation of all plausible scenarios managed to meet the requirements of socio-environment aspects as well as sustainability approaches.

Keywords: LARS-WG; rainfall-runoff model; artificial neural network; system dynamics modeling; reclamation scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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