The Elusive Turkestan Lynx at the Northwestern Edge of Geographic Range: Current Suitable Habitats and Distribution Forecast in the Climate Change

Nazerke Bizhanova, Moriz Steiner, Nurkuisa Rametov, Alexey Grachev, Yuri Grachev, Maxim Bespalov, Tungyshbek Zhaparkulov, Saltore Saparbayev, Amanbol Sailaukhanuly, Sergey Bespalov, Aibol Bolatuly, Kuandyk Saparov and Shahrul Anuar Mohd Sah
Additional contact information
Nazerke Bizhanova: Department of Biodiversity and Bioresources, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
Moriz Steiner: Department of Animal Science, Wageningen University and Research, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands
Nurkuisa Rametov: Department of Geospatial Engineering, Satpaev Kazakh National Research Technical University, Almaty 050000, Kazakhstan
Alexey Grachev: Laboratory of Theriology, Institute of Zoology, Almaty 050060, Kazakhstan
Yuri Grachev: Laboratory of Theriology, Institute of Zoology, Almaty 050060, Kazakhstan
Maxim Bespalov: Laboratory of Theriology, Institute of Zoology, Almaty 050060, Kazakhstan
Tungyshbek Zhaparkulov: Department of Research and Mountain Agrobiocenosis, Ile-Alatau National Park, Almaty 050067, Kazakhstan
Saltore Saparbayev: Laboratory of Theriology, Institute of Zoology, Almaty 050060, Kazakhstan
Amanbol Sailaukhanuly: Almaty State Nature Reserve, Almaty 041600, Kazakhstan
Sergey Bespalov: Laboratory of Theriology, Institute of Zoology, Almaty 050060, Kazakhstan
Aibol Bolatuly: Kolsai Kolderi National Park, Saty 041422, Kazakhstan
Kuandyk Saparov: Department of Biodiversity and Bioresources, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
Shahrul Anuar Mohd Sah: School of Biological Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Gelugor 11800, Malaysia

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 15, 1-39

Abstract: The Turkestan lynx ( Lynx lynx isabellina Blyth, 1847) is a rare and understudied subspecies of the Eurasian lynx occupying the mountains of Central and South Asia. This elusive felid’s northwestern range includes the Tien Shan and Zhetisu Alatau mountains in the border region of Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. As the first step to conserve this vulnerable carnivore, we have conducted the first full-scale research from 2013 until 2022 on its distribution in this region. Using 132 environmental predictors of 359 lynx sightings, we have created species habitat distribution models across the lynx’s northwestern range using machine learning approaches (Maximum Entropy—MaxEnt). Additionally, we created species distribution forecasts based on seven bio-climatic environmental predictors with each three different future global climate model scenarios. To validate these forecasts, we have calculated the changes in the lynx distribution range for the year 2100, making the first species distribution forecast for the Turkestan lynx in the area. Additionally, it provides insight into the possible effects of global climate change on this lynx population. Based on these distribution models, the lynx population in the Northern and Western Tien Shan and Zhetisu Alatau plays a significant role in maintaining the stability of the whole subspecies in its northwestern and global range, while the distribution forecast shows that most lynx distribution ranges will reduce in all future climate scenarios, and we might face the Turkestan lynx’s significant distribution range decline under the ongoing and advancing climate change conditions. For a future (year 2100) warming scenario of 3 deg. C (GCM IPSL), we observe a decrease of 35% in Kazakhstan, 40% in Kyrgyzstan, and 30% in China as the three countries with the highest current predicted distribution range. For a milder temperature increase of 1.5–2 deg. C. (GCM MRI), we observe an increase of 17% Kazakhstan, decrease of 10% in Kyrgyzstan, and 57% in China. For a cooling scenario of approx. 1–1.5 deg. C (GCM MIROC), we observe a decrease of 14% Kazakhstan, increase of 11% in Kyrgyzstan, and a decrease of 13% in China. These modeled declines indicate the necessity to create new and expand the existing protected areas and establish ecological corridors between the countries in Central and South Asia.

Keywords: Eurasian lynx; Turkestan lynx; Tien Shan; Dzhungarian (Zhetisu) Alatau; species distribution models; species distribution forecast; MaxEnt; environmental predictors; protected areas; conservation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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