Analysis of Crowded Propagation on the Metro Network

Cai Jia, Shuyan Zheng (), Hanqiang Qian, Bingxin Cao and Kaiting Zhang
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Cai Jia: School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Huajin Campus, South 189 Jiuhua Rd, Wuhu 241002, China
Shuyan Zheng: Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
Hanqiang Qian: Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
Bingxin Cao: Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
Kaiting Zhang: Quantutong Location Network Co., Ltd., 4F, No. 2 Courtyard, Liangshuihe No. 1 Street, Beijing 100176, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 16, 1-12

Abstract: The crowd in a metro system can cause inconvenience and even safety problems to passengers. The study of crowded propagation in metro systems can identify where and when crowds occur, ensuring travel quality and safety. Based on this, a modified susceptible–infected-susceptible (SIS) crowded propagation model is proposed to estimate the risk probability of crowding (RPC) in the metro network. Each station’s real transport capacity is considered. Infection rate and the recovery rate are proposed considering the traffic difference between stations. Using the Beijing metro network as a case study, the spatial and temporal patterns of crowded propagation are analyzed, and the types of nodes suitable for regulation are further discussed. This proposed model can provide a reference for RPC identification and regulation and promote sustainable development of metro operations.

Keywords: metro network; crowded propagation; risk probability of crowding; passenger flow (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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