Research on the ECC of Chengdu–Chongqing’s Urban Agglomeration in China Based on System Dynamics

Xiaohu Ci, Liping Zhang (), Tongxiang Wang, Yi Xiao () and Jun Xia
Additional contact information
Xiaohu Ci: State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Liping Zhang: State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Tongxiang Wang: State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Yi Xiao: State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Jun Xia: State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 17, 1-17

Abstract: The ecological carrying capacity (ECC) is a prerequisite for China’s regional and green developments. Since the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration (CCUA) is an important economic area, it is important to study the development of its ECC in order to establish its green development and to promote its regionally coordinated development in China. This paper first establishes the ECC evaluation index system based on the Pressure–State–Response (PSR) model and AHP-TOPSIS. Secondly, it estimates the ECC of the CCUA between 2000 and 2018. Thirdly, it constructs a system dynamics model of the ECC and, finally, it simulates and predicts the ECC from 2021 to 2050 based on shared socioeconomic pathways. The results show that the ECC indices of 16 cities in the CCUA have increased significantly in 18 years and the annual ECC indices from 2021 to 2050 all show significant growth trends. This paper will show that the CCUA should select the most suitable development mode to be adopted in the different periods. The development should follow SSP2 from 2021 to 2025, SSP1 from 2026 to 2035, and the development characteristics of SSP5 should be referred to at levels between 2036 and 2050, based on the CCUA’s overall development in accordance with SSP1.

Keywords: ecological carrying capacity; urban agglomeration; system dynamics; shared socioeconomic paths (SSPs); simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/17/10896/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/17/10896/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:17:p:10896-:d:903383

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().