Implications of the Emergence of Autonomous Vehicles and Shared Autonomous Vehicles: A Budapest Perspective

Mohamad Shatanawi () and Ferenc Mészáros
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Mohamad Shatanawi: Department of Transport Technology and Economics, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Műegyetem rkp. 3, 1111 Budapest, Hungary
Ferenc Mészáros: Department of Transport Technology and Economics, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Műegyetem rkp. 3, 1111 Budapest, Hungary

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 17, 1-19

Abstract: The introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) is projected to enhance network performance and accessibility. The future share distribution of AV and SAV is not yet apparent, nor is which of these two future transport modes will become dominant. Therefore, this research deploys a simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment using Visum software to investigate the impact of varying the share distribution of AVs and SAVs on Budapest’s network performance and consumer surplus in three projected future traffic scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050 compared to the Base scenario for 2020. The three future scenarios are presented and characterized by different penetration rates of AVs and SAVs to reflect the uncertainty in the market share of these future cars as follows: Mix-Traffic scenario for 2030, and AV-Focused and SAV-Focused scenarios for 2050. The results revealed that the emergence of AVs and SAVs would improve the overall network performance, and better performance was observed with increasing the share distribution of SAVs. Similarly, the consumer surplus increased in all future scenarios, especially with increasing the share distribution of AVs. Consequently, the advent of AVs and SAVs will improve traffic performance and increase consumer surplus, benefiting road users and authorities.

Keywords: autonomous vehicles; traffic flow; dynamic traffic assignment; macro-modeling; Visum; shared mobility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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