Impact of Extreme Heatwaves on Population Exposure in China Due to Additional Warming

Leibin Wang, Robert V. Rohli, Qigen Lin, Shaofei Jin () and Xiaodong Yan ()
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Leibin Wang: Postdoctoral Research Station of Geography, Hebei Technology Innovation Center for Remote Sensing Identification of Environmental Change, School of Geographic Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, China
Robert V. Rohli: Department of Oceanography & Coastal Sciences, College of the Coast & Environment, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA
Qigen Lin: Institute for Disaster Risk Management, School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Shaofei Jin: Department of Geography, MinJiang University, Fuzhou 350108, China
Xiaodong Yan: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 18, 1-13

Abstract: Extreme heatwaves are among the most important climate-related disasters affecting public health. Assessing heatwave-related population exposures under different warming scenarios is critical for climate change adaptation. Here, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble output results are applied over several warming periods in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR6 report, to estimate China’s future heatwave population exposure under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. Our results show a significant increase in projected future annual heatwave days (HD) under both scenarios. With an additional temperature increase of 0.5 °C to 2.0 °C of warming, by mid-century an additional 20.15 percent increase in annual HD would occur, over 1.5 °C warming. If the climate warmed from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C by mid-century, population exposure would increase by an additional 40.6 percent. Among the three influencing elements that cause the changes in population exposure related to heatwaves in China–climate, population, and interaction (e.g., as urbanization affects population redistribution)–climate plays the dominant role in different warming scenarios (relative contribution exceeds 70 percent). Therefore, considering the future heat risks, humanity benefits from a 0.5 °C reduction in warming, particularly in eastern China. This conclusion may provide helpful insights for developing mitigation strategies for climate change.

Keywords: heatwaves; population exposure change; global warming; 1.5 °C warming scenario; 2.0 °C warming scenario (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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