Analysis and Prediction of Wind Speed Effects in East Asia and the Western Pacific Based on Multi-Source Data

Chaoli Tang, Xinhua Tao (), Yuanyuan Wei, Ziyue Tong, Fangzheng Zhu and Han Lin
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Chaoli Tang: School of Electrical & Information Engineering, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001, China
Xinhua Tao: School of Electrical & Information Engineering, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001, China
Yuanyuan Wei: School of Internet, Anhui University, Hefei 230039, China
Ziyue Tong: School of Electrical & Information Engineering, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001, China
Fangzheng Zhu: School of Electrical & Information Engineering, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001, China
Han Lin: School of Electrical & Information Engineering, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 19, 1-15

Abstract: With the increasing problem of global warming caused by the massive use of fossil fuels, biomass energy as a renewable energy source has attracted widespread attention throughout the globe. In this paper, we analyzed the spatial and temporal variation in wind energy in the East Asia and Western Pacific areas using IGRA site data, ERA5, and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 2000 to 2021, and multi-variate empirical orthogonal function (MV-EOF) decomposition with the Pettitt mutation test, and the seasonal autoregression integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used to predict the trend of wind speed. The spatial and temporal variations in wind energy in East Asia and Western Pacific areas were analyzed, and it was found that the richer wind-energy resources were mainly concentrated in the “Three Norths” (North China, Northwest China, and Northeast China) and Mongolia, followed by the Western Pacific areas. In addition, the T’ai-hang Mountains and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China block the wind resources in the eastern and southern regions of East Asia, resulting in a shortage of wind resources in this region. In addition, the summer wind speed is significantly lower than in the other three seasons. The first-mode contributions of the MV-EOF wind field and geopotential heights, respectively, are 29.47% and 37.75%. The results show that: (1) There are significant seasonal differences in wind-energy resources in the study area, with the lowest wind speed in summer and the highest wind speed in winter. (2) The wind energy in the study area has significant regional characteristics. For example, China’s Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang region, and Mongolia are rich in wind-energy resources. (3) Wind-energy resources in the study area have gradually increased since 2010, mainly due to changes in large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns caused by global warming.

Keywords: wind energy; temporal and spatial variation; Pettitt test; ERA5 reanalysis; MV-EOF decomposition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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