Historical Trends Associated with Annual Temperature and Precipitation in Aegean Turkey, Where Are We Heading?

Denizhan Mersin, Gokmen Tayfur, Babak Vaheddoost and Mir Jafar Sadegh Safari ()
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Denizhan Mersin: Department of Civil Engineering, Firat University, 23200 Elazig, Turkey
Gokmen Tayfur: Department of Civil Engineering, Izmir Institute of Technology, 35430 Izmir, Turkey
Babak Vaheddoost: Department of Civil Engineering, Bursa Technical University, 16350 Bursa, Turkey
Mir Jafar Sadegh Safari: Department of Civil Engineering, Yasar University, 35100 Izmir, Turkey

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 20, 1-15

Abstract: The trend analysis of annual temperature (daily average) and total precipitation has been conducted for 14 stations located in the Aegean Region, Turkey. The Sen, Spearman’s rho, and Mann-Kendall test methods are used in the detection of the historical trends in the region. The Pettitt test is also implemented to find the significance of the trend, while the Theil-Sen approach is applied to detect the change point(s) in the time series. Findings of the following study indicate that both precipitation and temperature time series in the selected stations depict statistically significant trends with increasing nature. The rate of increase in precipitation and temperature by the Theil-Sen test is found to be 4.2–7.9 mm/year and 0.20–0.35 °C/decade, respectively. It is also found that the turn points of the temperature trends determined by the Pettitt test occurred in 1998 for all the stations. According to the results, the magnitude of the extreme events would change in the future, which may help in conceptualizing the framework and the resilience of the infrastructures against climate change.

Keywords: Aegean region; hydrometeorology; precipitation; temperature; trend; Turkey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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