Response of Winter Wheat Production to Climate Change in Ziway Lake Basin

Aster Tesfaye Hordofa (), Olkeba Tolessa Leta, Tena Alamirew and Abebe Demissie Chukalla
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Aster Tesfaye Hordofa: Africa Centre of Excellence for Water Management, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa 1176, Ethiopia
Olkeba Tolessa Leta: Bureau of Watershed Management and Modeling, St. Johns River Water Management District, 4049 Reid Street, Palatka, FL 32177, USA
Tena Alamirew: Ethiopian Institute of Water Resources, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa 1176, Ethiopia
Abebe Demissie Chukalla: The Department of Land & Water Management, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, 2611 Delft, The Netherlands

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 20, 1-17

Abstract: The crop production and limited freshwater resources in the Central Rift Valley (CRV) Lake Basin of Ethiopia have been facing pressure from warmer and drier climates. Thus, irrigation with the goal of increasing water use efficiency and the productivity of rainfed agriculture is vital to address climate effects, water scarcity, and food security. This study is aimed at assessing the sustainability of winter wheat production under climate change, and irrigation as an adaptation measure to improve yield, crop water productivity (CWP), and irrigation water productivity (IWP) in the CRV of Ethiopia. AquaCrop is applied to evaluate the effects of climate change and simulate irrigation as an adaptation measure. The analysis covers the baseline (1981–2020) and future (2026–2095) periods with each period categorized into three rainfall years (wet, normal, and dry). The future period is described using two representatives’ concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and PCP8.5) scenarios. The results under rainfed and future climate conditions show that the winter wheat yield and CWP are projected to be lowered as compared to the baseline period. Most importantly, a significant reduction in wheat yield and CWP is noticed during the dry years (−60% and −80%) compared to the wet years (−30% and −51%) and normal years (−18% and −30%), respectively. As compared to rainfed agriculture, irrigation significantly reduces the risk of wheat yield decline and improves the CWP. Irrigation is also able to improve the CWP of rainfed wheat production ranging from 0.98–1.4 kg/m 3 to 1.48–1.56 kg/m 3 . A projected CWP improvement of 1.1–1.32 kg/m 3 under irrigation is possible from 0.87–1.1 kg/m 3 under rainfed conditions. The study concludes that optimizing irrigation as a climate-change-adapting strategy in the CRV has a more pronounced positive impact to the rainfed production system, especially for the dry and normal years.

Keywords: AquaCrop; irrigation water productivity; rainfall categories; RCP4.5 and 8.5; Rift Valley Lake Basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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