How Compatible Are Western European Dietary Patterns to Climate Targets? Accounting for Uncertainty of Life Cycle Assessments by Applying a Probabilistic Approach

Johanna Ruett, Lena Hennes (), Jens Teubler and Boris Braun
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Johanna Ruett: Institute of Geography, University of Cologne, 50923 Cologne, Germany
Lena Hennes: Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, 42103 Wuppertal, Germany
Jens Teubler: Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, 42103 Wuppertal, Germany
Boris Braun: Institute of Geography, University of Cologne, 50923 Cologne, Germany

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 21, 1-21

Abstract: The food system plays a crucial role in mitigating climate change. Even if fossil fuel emissions are halted immediately, current trends in global food systems may prevent the achieving of the Paris Agreement’s climate targets. The high degree of variability and uncertainty involved in calculating diet-related greenhouse gas emissions limits the ability to evaluate reduction potentials to remain below a global warming of 1.5 or 2 degrees. This study assessed Western European dietary patterns while accounting for uncertainty and variability. An extensive literature review provided value ranges for climate impacts of animal-based foods to conduct an uncertainty analysis via Monte Carlo simulation. The resulting carbon footprints were assessed against food system-specific greenhouse gas emission thresholds. The range and absolute value of a diet carbon footprint become larger the higher the amount of products with highly varying emission values in the diet. All dietary pattern carbon footprints overshoot the 1.5 degrees threshold. The vegan, vegetarian, and diet with low animal-based food intake were predominantly below the 2 degrees threshold. Omnivorous diets with more animal-based product content trespassed them. Reducing animal-based foods is a powerful strategy to decrease emissions. However, further mitigation strategies are required to achieve climate goals.

Keywords: sustainable diet; carbon footprint; Western Europe; animal-based products; life cycle assessment; climate targets; Monte Carlo simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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