Variation of Ground Surface Freezing/Thawing Index in China under the CMIP6 Warming Scenarios

Xianglong Li, Ze Zhang (), Andrey Melnikov, Mingyi Zhang, Doudou Jin and Jinbang Zhai
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Xianglong Li: School of Civil Engineering, Institute of Cold Regions Science and Engineering, Permafrost Institute, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China
Ze Zhang: School of Civil Engineering, Institute of Cold Regions Science and Engineering, Permafrost Institute, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China
Andrey Melnikov: Melnikov Permafrost Institute, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Science, 677010 Yakutsk, Russia
Mingyi Zhang: State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Doudou Jin: School of Transportation, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China
Jinbang Zhai: School of Transportation, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 21, 1-17

Abstract: As an important parameter in permafrost research, the annual ground surface freezing/thawing index is widely used in the variation of permafrost. In addition, it is also an important indicator in climatology, providing a large amount of theoretical basis for the assessment of climate change. Based on the ground surface temperature data recorded at 707 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2020, the ground surface freezing/thawing index in China were calculated. The results showed that over the past six decades, the thawing index has shown an upward trend, whereas the freezing index has shown a downward trend, and the trend is stronger around 2000. The results of the R/S-based analysis indicate that the freezing/thawing index will remain on a decreasing/increasing trend for some time to come. Based on the five warming scenarios published by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the spatial–temporal variation characteristics of the ground surface freezing/thawing index in China during 2020–2100 was simulated. It was found that under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the freezing/thawing index may be 0 °C-days in 2080 and 2070, respectively, which may imply that the ground surface freezing process in some regions of China may disappear.

Keywords: China; ground surface freezing/thawing index; CMIP6; SSP; warming scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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