Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Availability in Cimanuk Watershed, Indonesia

Nani Heryani (), Budi Kartiwa, Hendri Sosiawan, Popi Rejekiningrum, Setyono Hari Adi, Yayan Apriyana, Aris Pramudia, Muhammad Prama Yufdy, Chendy Tafakresnanto, Achmad Arivin Rivaie, Suratman, Ai Dariah, Afrizal Malik, Yusuf and Cahyati Setiani
Additional contact information
Nani Heryani: Research Center for Limnology and Water Resources, Research Organization for Earth Sciences and Maritime, National Research and Innovation Agency, Cibinong Science Center, Jl. Raya Jakarta-Bogor Km 46, Cibinong, Bogor 16911, Indonesia
Budi Kartiwa: Research Center for Limnology and Water Resources, Research Organization for Earth Sciences and Maritime, National Research and Innovation Agency, Cibinong Science Center, Jl. Raya Jakarta-Bogor Km 46, Cibinong, Bogor 16911, Indonesia
Hendri Sosiawan: Research Center for Limnology and Water Resources, Research Organization for Earth Sciences and Maritime, National Research and Innovation Agency, Cibinong Science Center, Jl. Raya Jakarta-Bogor Km 46, Cibinong, Bogor 16911, Indonesia
Popi Rejekiningrum: Research Center for Limnology and Water Resources, Research Organization for Earth Sciences and Maritime, National Research and Innovation Agency, Cibinong Science Center, Jl. Raya Jakarta-Bogor Km 46, Cibinong, Bogor 16911, Indonesia
Setyono Hari Adi: Research Center for Limnology and Water Resources, Research Organization for Earth Sciences and Maritime, National Research and Innovation Agency, Cibinong Science Center, Jl. Raya Jakarta-Bogor Km 46, Cibinong, Bogor 16911, Indonesia
Yayan Apriyana: Research Center for Climate and Atmosphere, Research Organization for Earth Sciences and Maritime, National Research and Innovation Agency, Jalan Dr. Djundjunan No. 133, Bandung 40173, Indonesia
Aris Pramudia: Research Center for Climate and Atmosphere, Research Organization for Earth Sciences and Maritime, National Research and Innovation Agency, Jalan Dr. Djundjunan No. 133, Bandung 40173, Indonesia
Muhammad Prama Yufdy: Research Center for Horticultural and Estate Crops, Research Organization for Agriculture and Food, National Research and Innovation Agency, Cibinong Science Center, Jl. Raya Jakarta-Bogor Km 46, Cibinong, Bogor 16911, Indonesia
Chendy Tafakresnanto: Research Center for Geospatial, Research Organization for Earth Sciences and Maritime, National Research and Innovation Agency, Cibinong Science Center, Jl. Raya Jakarta-Bogor Km 46, Cibinong 16911, Indonesia
Achmad Arivin Rivaie: Research Center for Food Crops, Research Organization for Agriculture and Food, National Research and Innovation Agency, Cibinong Science Center, Jl. Raya Jakarta-Bogor Km 46, Cibinong, Bogor 16911, Indonesia
Suratman: Research Center for Geospatial, Research Organization for Earth Sciences and Maritime, National Research and Innovation Agency, Cibinong Science Center, Jl. Raya Jakarta-Bogor Km 46, Cibinong 16911, Indonesia
Ai Dariah: Research Center for Horticultural and Estate Crops, Research Organization for Agriculture and Food, National Research and Innovation Agency, Cibinong Science Center, Jl. Raya Jakarta-Bogor Km 46, Cibinong, Bogor 16911, Indonesia
Afrizal Malik: Research Center for Behavioral and Circular Economics, Research Organization for Governance, Economy, and Community Welfare, National Research and Innovation Agency, Gatot Subroto Science Center, Jl. Gatot Subroto 10, Jakarta 12710, Indonesia
Yusuf: Research Center for Horticultural and Estate Crops, Research Organization for Agriculture and Food, National Research and Innovation Agency, Cibinong Science Center, Jl. Raya Jakarta-Bogor Km 46, Cibinong, Bogor 16911, Indonesia
Cahyati Setiani: Research Center for Behavioral and Circular Economics, Research Organization for Governance, Economy, and Community Welfare, National Research and Innovation Agency, Gatot Subroto Science Center, Jl. Gatot Subroto 10, Jakarta 12710, Indonesia

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 23, 1-18

Abstract: Climate change has been affecting agricultural water resources dynamics spatially and temporally. This article presents analysis results of climate change impact on agricultural water availability in Cimanuk Watershed, Indonesia. STREAM was utilized to model agricultural water availability through FAO MOSAICC web application. Climate spatial data time-series were generated using 3 Global Climate Model (GCM), i.e.,: CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, and MPI-ESM-MR following two climate change scenarios of RCP4.5 and 8.5. Model inputs were split into three periods of 1981–2010 (historical), 2010–2039 (near-future), and 2040–2069 (far-future). Historical data model validation showed the efficiency coefficient of the observed and simulated discharge data ratio was 0.68. The results showed a decreasing volumetric water availability from all generated climate data and scenarios, identified by comparing the discharge normal distribution of the historical and future data periods. Whereas, trend analysis of RCP4.5 scenario showed increasing maximum discharge of Cimanuk river using CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-MR GCM’s data, with a Mann–Kendall coefficient of 3.23 and 3.57. These results indicate a different agricultural water balance status within the watershed area, particularly a “very critical” water balance in Indramayu and Majalengka, “critical” in Garut, and “close to critical” in Sumedang Regency.

Keywords: climate change; GCM; RCPs4.5; stream model; agricultural water balance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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