Short-Term Load Forecasting with an Ensemble Model Using Densely Residual Block and Bi-LSTM Based on the Attention Mechanism

Wenhao Chen, Guangjie Han (), Hongbo Zhu and Lyuchao Liao
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Wenhao Chen: School of Transportation, Fujian University of Technology, Fuzhou 350118, China
Guangjie Han: School of Transportation, Fujian University of Technology, Fuzhou 350118, China
Hongbo Zhu: School of Information Science and Engineering, Shenyang Ligong University, Shenyang 110159, China
Lyuchao Liao: School of Transportation, Fujian University of Technology, Fuzhou 350118, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 24, 1-16

Abstract: Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for urban sustainable development. It can further contribute to the stable operation of the smart grid. With the development of renewable energy, improving STLF accuracy has become a vital task. Nevertheless, most models based on the convolutional neural network (CNN) cannot effectively extract the crucial features from input data. The reason is that the fundamental requirement of adopting the convolutional neural network (CNN) is space invariance, which cannot be satisfied by the received data, limiting the forecasting performance. Thus, this paper proposes an innovative ensemble model that comprises a densely residual block (DRB), bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) layers based on the attention mechanism, and ensemble thinking. Specifically, the DRB is adopted to extract the potential high-dimensional features from different types of data, such as multi-scale load data, temperature data, and calendar data. The extracted features are the input of the Bi-LSTM layer. Then, the adopted attention mechanism can assign various weights to the hidden state of Bi-LSTM and focus on the crucial factors. Finally, the proposed two-stage ensemble thinking can further improve model generalization. The experimental results show that the proposed model can produce better forecasting performance compared to the existing ones, by almost 3.37–5.94%.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting; unshared convolutional neural network; bidirectional long short-term memory; attention mechanism; ensemble thinking (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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