A Pathway for the German Energy Sector Compatible with a 1.5 °C Carbon Budget

Sonja Simon, Mengzhu Xiao, Carina Harpprecht, Shima Sasanpour, Hedda Gardian and Thomas Pregger
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Sonja Simon: Institute of Networked Energy Systems, German Aerospace Center (DLR), 70563 Stuttgart, Germany
Mengzhu Xiao: Institute of Networked Energy Systems, German Aerospace Center (DLR), 70563 Stuttgart, Germany
Carina Harpprecht: Institute of Networked Energy Systems, German Aerospace Center (DLR), 70563 Stuttgart, Germany
Shima Sasanpour: Institute of Networked Energy Systems, German Aerospace Center (DLR), 70563 Stuttgart, Germany
Hedda Gardian: Institute of Networked Energy Systems, German Aerospace Center (DLR), 70563 Stuttgart, Germany
Thomas Pregger: Institute of Networked Energy Systems, German Aerospace Center (DLR), 70563 Stuttgart, Germany

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 2, 1-26

Abstract: We present an energy transition pathway constrained by a total CO 2 budget of 7 Gt allocated to the German energy system after 2020, the Budget Scenario (BS). We apply a normative backcasting approach for scenario building based on historical data and assumptions from existing scenario studies. The modeling approach combines a comprehensive energy system model (ESM) with REMix—a cost optimization model for power and heat that explicitly incorporates sector coupling. To achieve the necessary CO 2 reduction, the scenario focuses on electrifying all end use sectors until 2030, adding 1.5–2 million electric vehicles to the road per year. In buildings, 400,000–500,000 heat pumps would be installed annually by 2030, and the share of district heating would double until 2050. In the scenario, coal needs to be phased out by 2030. Wind and Photovoltaic (PV) capacities would need to more than double to 290 GW by 2030 and reach 500 GW by 2050. The BS results indicate that a significant acceleration of the energy transition is necessary before 2030 and that this higher pace must be maintained thereafter until 2050.

Keywords: net-zero; energy scenario; decarbonization; carbon budget; energy transformation pathway; renewable energy; electrification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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