A Modeling and Analysis Framework for Integrated Energy Systems Exposed to Climate Change-Induced NaTech Accidental Scenarios

Francesco Di Maio, Pietro Tonicello and Enrico Zio
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Francesco Di Maio: Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, 20156 Milan, Italy
Pietro Tonicello: Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, 20156 Milan, Italy
Enrico Zio: Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, 20156 Milan, Italy

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 2, 1-19

Abstract: This paper proposes a novel framework for the analysis of integrated energy systems (IESs) exposed to both stochastic failures and “shock” climate-induced failures, such as those characterizing NaTech accidental scenarios. With such a framework, standard centralized systems (CS), IES with distributed generation (IES-DG) and IES with bidirectional energy conversion (IES+P2G) enabled by power-to-gas (P2G) facilities can be analyzed. The framework embeds the model of each single production plant in an integrated power-flow model and then couples it with a stochastic failures model and a climate-induced failure model, which simulates the occurrence of extreme weather events (e.g., flooding) driven by climate change. To illustrate how to operationalize the analysis in practice, a case study of a realistic IES has been considered that comprises two combined cycle gas turbine plants (CCGT), a nuclear power plant (NPP), two wind farms (WF), a solar photovoltaicS (PV) field and a power-to-gas station (P2G). Results suggest that the IESs are resilient to climate-induced failures.

Keywords: integrated energy systems (IES); NaTech scenarios; climate change; Monte Carlo simulation; CVaR; system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI); annual failure probability (AFP); loss exceedance probability (LEP) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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