Assessment of the Fragility of the Municipal Waste Sector in Serbia Using System Dynamics Modelling

Miloš Jovičić, Goran B. Bošković, Nebojša Jovičić, Marija Savković, Ivan Mačužić, Miladin Stefanović and Yury Klochkov
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Miloš Jovičić: Faculty of Engineering, University of Kragujevac, 34000 Kragujevac, Serbia
Goran B. Bošković: Faculty of Engineering, University of Kragujevac, 34000 Kragujevac, Serbia
Nebojša Jovičić: Faculty of Engineering, University of Kragujevac, 34000 Kragujevac, Serbia
Marija Savković: Faculty of Engineering, University of Kragujevac, 34000 Kragujevac, Serbia
Ivan Mačužić: Faculty of Engineering, University of Kragujevac, 34000 Kragujevac, Serbia
Miladin Stefanović: Faculty of Engineering, University of Kragujevac, 34000 Kragujevac, Serbia
Yury Klochkov: Monitoring Center of Science and Education, Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, 195251 St. Petersburg, Russia

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 2, 1-22

Abstract: This research develops a novel methodology for municipal waste management in Serbia, based on system dynamics modelling. The methodology shows how a country and relevant institutions should address complexities in the waste management sector. Waste management is a critical issue globally, which heavily impacts the economic development of a country, including the general quality of life within a society. The designed simulation generates different scenarios of the Serbian municipal waste system for reaching the 2035 recycling rate targets. Methodologies such as the theory of constraints, fragility analysis, and systems dynamics were implemented in the model. The scenarios and fragility modelling were conducted with the system dynamics modelling methodology in the Ventity simulation environment. The designed model has elements of discrete event simulations, system dynamics, and agent-based modelling. Importantly, real-world data for the period of five years (from the year 2016 to 2020) was used in the case study. This research undoubtedly reveals that the informal sector is the key source of fragility to the dynamic system considered. During the considered period, the informal sector contributed 62.3% of all separated waste to the system. Consequently, this research concludes that for the waste sector in Serbia to reach the 2035 EU goals, the existing practice in waste management has to be changed significantly and will benefit from the modelling approach used here. The whole system is highly dependent on the informal sector, which, in its current form, is volatile, unregulated, and fragile to aggressive regulative policies.

Keywords: solid waste management; recycling targets; fragility; system dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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