Predicting Detached Housing Vacancy: A Multilevel Analysis

Jaekyung Lee, Galen Newman and Changyeon Lee
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Jaekyung Lee: Department of Urban Design and Planning, Hongik University, Seoul 04066, Korea
Galen Newman: Department of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA
Changyeon Lee: Department of Urban Engineering, Jeonbuk National University, Jeonju 54896, Korea

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 2, 1-18

Abstract: Urban shrinkage is a critical issue in local small- and medium-sized cities in Korea. While there have been several studies to analyze the causes and consequences of vacancy increases, most have only focused on socioeconomic associations at larger scale and failed to consider individual housing level characteristics, primarily due to a lack of appropriate data. Based on data including 52,400 individual parcels, this study analyzes the primary contributors to vacant properties and their spatial distribution through a multilevel model design based on data for each parcel. Then, we identify areas at high risk of vacancy in the future to provide evidence to establish policies for improving the local environment. Results indicate that construction year, building structure, and road access conditions have a significant effect on vacant properties at the individual parcel level, and the presence of schools and hypermarket within 500 m are found to decrease vacant properties. Further, prediction outcomes show that the aged city center and areas with strict regulations on land use are expected to have a higher vacancy rate. These findings are used to provide a set of data-based revitalization strategies through the development of a vacancy prediction model.

Keywords: urban shrinkage; vacancy parcel data; multilevel analysis; predicting vacancy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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