Potential Range Shift of Snow Leopard in Future Climate Change Scenarios

Xinhai Li, Liming Ma, Dazhi Hu, Duifang Ma, Renqiang Li, Yuehua Sun and Erhu Gao
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Xinhai Li: Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Liming Ma: Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Dazhi Hu: Qilianshan National Park Administration Bureau Zhangye Branch, Zhangye 734000, China
Duifang Ma: Qilianshan National Park Administration Bureau Zhangye Branch, Zhangye 734000, China
Renqiang Li: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Yuehua Sun: Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Erhu Gao: Academy of Inventory and Planning, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing 100714, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 3, 1-14

Abstract: The snow leopard ( Panthera uncia ) lives in alpine ecosystems in Central Asia, where it could face intensive climate change and is thus a major conservation concern. We compiled a dataset of 406 GPS-located occurrences based on field surveys, literature, and the GBIF database. We used Random Forest to build different species distribution models with a maximum of 27 explanatory variables, including climatic, topographical, and human impact variables, to predict potential distribution for the snow leopard and make climate change projections. We estimated the potential range shifts of the snow leopard under two global climate models for different representative concentration pathways for 2050 and 2070. We found the distribution center of the snow leopard may move northwest by about 200 km and may move upward in elevation by about 100 m by 2070. Unlike previous studies on the range shifts of the snow leopard, we highlighted that upward rather than northward range shifts are the main pathways for the snow leopard in the changing climate, since the landform of their habitat allows an upward shift, whereas mountains and valleys would block northward movement. Conservation of the snow leopard should therefore prioritize protecting its current habitat over making movement corridors.

Keywords: alpine ecosystem; conservation planning; global warming; model selection; species distribution model; range shift; representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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