Observed Changes in Meteorological Drought Events during 1981–2020 over Rwanda, East Africa

Jacqueline Uwimbabazi, Yuanshu Jing, Vedaste Iyakaremye, Irfan Ullah and Brian Ayugi
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Jacqueline Uwimbabazi: Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Yuanshu Jing: Rwanda Meteorology Agency, Kigali P.O. Box 898, Rwanda
Vedaste Iyakaremye: Rwanda Meteorology Agency, Kigali P.O. Box 898, Rwanda
Irfan Ullah: Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Brian Ayugi: Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 3, 1-21

Abstract: Drought is one of the most complex natural phenomena affecting the life and livelihood of people, especially in the current time of human-induced climate change. This research employs ground-based observations to assess the recent spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought events over Rwanda. The drought is examined based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at seasonal and annual time scales from 1981 to 2020. The Man–Kendal test was used to evaluate the trends in rainfall, temperature, and SPEI values at the annual scale and during the March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND) seasons. The analysis revealed nonsignificant trends in annual (8.4 mm/decade), MAM (−3.4 mm/decade), and OND (4.5 mm/decade) rainfall, while an apparent significant increasing trend in surface air temperature was obtained during the MAM (0.19 °C/decade), OND (0.2 °C/decade), and annual (0.23 °C/decade) time slices. Overall, the SPEI characteristics indicated that the country is more prone to moderate drought events than severe and extreme drought events during MAM and OND seasons. However, the intensity, duration, and frequency differ spatially among seasons. The findings of this study inform policy and decision-makers on the past experienced drought behavior, which can serve as a baseline for future drought mitigation and adaptation plans.

Keywords: extreme events; SPEI; rainfall; temperature; climate change; Rwanda; East Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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