A Comprehensive Evaluation of Electricity Planning Models in Egypt: Optimization versus Agent-Based Approaches

Mostafa Shaaban, Jürgen Scheffran, Mohamed Salah Elsobki and Hossein Azadi
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Mostafa Shaaban: Research Group Land Use Decisions in the Spatial and System Context (DSC), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
Jürgen Scheffran: Research Group Climate Change and Security (CLISEC), Institute of Geography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Grindelberg 5/7, 20144 Hamburg, Germany
Mohamed Salah Elsobki: Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, Gamaet El Qahera Street, Giza 12613, Egypt
Hossein Azadi: Research Group Climate Change and Security (CLISEC), Institute of Geography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Grindelberg 5/7, 20144 Hamburg, Germany

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 3, 1-23

Abstract: A rational assessment of electricity generation technologies constitutes a cornerstone to attain a sustainable and secure electricity plan. The Egyptian government is struggling with the accelerated growth of the national electricity demand through setting up and examining different future electricity scenarios and through the implementation of energy models to secure the provision of affordable and clean energy as part of the United Nations 2030 agenda of achieving the 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs). However, conventional techno-economic models still represent for many countries an attractive tool for energy planning. We investigate in this article the added values of applying a dynamic multi-criteria spatial-agent model that covers several sustainability dimensions versus an optimization techno-economic model for future energy planning in Egypt. Moreover, we report on the historical development of electricity supply since 2009 in Egypt. The study reveals predominant advantages of applying the agent-based modeling approach, which simulates the evolution of an energy transition landscape through the interactive and adaptive dynamic decision behavior of different societal groups (agents) in response to changes in the whole system. The study advocates the implementation of a dynamic agent-based bottom-up approach for the planning of a future sustainable electricity mix in Egypt.

Keywords: energy modeling; sustainable development; bottom-up energy model; optimization modeling; agent-based modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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