Changes in the Potential Distribution of Vanilla planifolia Andrews under Different Climate Change Projections in Mexico

Samaria Armenta-Montero, Rebeca Menchaca-García, Araceli Pérez-Silva and Noé Velázquez-Rosas
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Samaria Armenta-Montero: Centro de Investigaciones Tropicales, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa 91000, Mexico
Rebeca Menchaca-García: Centro de Investigaciones Tropicales, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa 91000, Mexico
Araceli Pérez-Silva: Departamento de Ingeniería Química y Bioquímica, Instituto Tecnológico de México, Campus Tuxtepec, Tuxtepec 68350, Mexico
Noé Velázquez-Rosas: Centro de Investigaciones Tropicales, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa 91000, Mexico

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 5, 1-13

Abstract: Vanilla planifolia is the most widely cultivated species for obtaining natural vanilla. In Mexico, vanilla production has decreased due to negative effects of climate change. We evaluate the current, potential, and future of vanilla cultivation areas in Mexico using bioclimatic models with distinct climate change scenarios (intermediate emissions, temperature rise of 1.1 to 2.6 °C, and high emissions from 2.6 to 4.8 °C, to 2050 and 2070), in order to understand the magnitude of future distribution changes and propose future management strategies. We found that the areas with greatest potential for establishment of V . planifolia are northern Veracruz state bordering the state of Puebla (the Totonacapan region) and northeast Oaxaca state. In the models, the most relevant environmental variable were mean temperature and precipitation of the driest quarter. The average projections for 2050 and 2070 show a progressive reduction in the potential area for the species (−1.6 and −17.3%). However, the Totonacapan region maintains the largest ideal cultivation area, while that of northeast Oaxaca is reduced by 50%. These results show the need to redesign the strategies of agricultural production of vanilla, through sustainable and climate-smart agricultural production strategies as well as a national strategy for conservation of genetic diversity.

Keywords: potential distribution; climate change scenarios; sustainable management; traditional vanilla beans (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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