Application of a Novel Optimized Fractional Grey Holt-Winters Model in Energy Forecasting

Weijie Zhou, Huihui Tao and Huimin Jiang
Additional contact information
Weijie Zhou: School of Wujinglian Economics, Changzhou University, Changzhou 213159, China
Huihui Tao: School of Wujinglian Economics, Changzhou University, Changzhou 213159, China
Huimin Jiang: School of Wujinglian Economics, Changzhou University, Changzhou 213159, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 5, 1-18

Abstract: It is of great significance to be able to accurately predict the time series of energy data. In this paper, based on the seasonal and nonlinear characteristics of monthly and quarterly energy time series, a new optimized fractional grey Holt–Winters model (NOFGHW) is proposed to improve the identification of the model by integrating the processing methods of the two characteristics. The model consists of three parts. Firstly, a new fractional periodic accumulation operator is proposed, which preserves the periodic fluctuation of data after accumulation. Secondly, the new operator is introduced into the Holt–Winters model to describe the seasonality of the sequence. Finally, the LBFGS algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of the model, which can deal with nonlinear characteristics in the sequence. Furthermore, in order to verify the superiority of the model in energy prediction, the new model is applied to two cases with different seasonal, different cycle, and different energy types, namely monthly crude oil production and quarterly industrial electricity consumption. The experimental results show that the new model can be used to predict monthly and quarterly energy time series, which is better than the OGHW, SNGBM, SARIMA, LSSVR, and BPNN models. Based on this, the new model demonstrates reliability in energy prediction.

Keywords: NOFGHW model; seasonal; nonlinear; energy prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/5/3118/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/5/3118/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:5:p:3118-:d:765859

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().