Forecasting the Effect of Migrants’ Remittances on Household Expenditure: COVID-19 Impact

Lei Zhang, Yang Chen, Oleksii Lyulyov and Tetyana Pimonenko
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Lei Zhang: Library of Henan Institute of Science and Technology, Xinxiang 453003, China
Yang Chen: School of Economics, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350117, China
Tetyana Pimonenko: Department of Marketing, Sumy State University, 40007 Sumy, Ukraine

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 7, 1-16

Abstract: The unexpected pandemic has provoked changes in all economic sectors worldwide. COVID-19 has had a direct and indirect effect on countries’ development. Thus, the pandemic limits the movements of labour forces among countries, restricting migrants’ remittances. In addition, it provokes the reorientation of consumer behaviour and changes in household expenditure. For developing countries, migrant remittances are one of the core drivers for improving household wellbeing. Therefore, the paper aims to analyse how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected household expenditure in Ukraine, as being representative of a developing country. For this purpose, the data series were compiled for 2010 to the second quarter of 2021. The data sources were as follows: Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, The World Bank, and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The core variables were as follows: migrants’ remittances and expenditure of households by the types. The following methods were applied to achieve the paper’s aims: the Dickey–Fuller Test Unit Root and the ARIMA model. The findings confirmed that COVID-19 has changed the structure of household expenditure in Ukraine. Considering the forecast of household expenditure until 2026, it was shown that due to changes in migrants’ remittances, household expenditure in all categories tends to increase. The forecasted findings concluded that household expenditure on transport had the most significant growth due to changing migrants’ remittances.

Keywords: pandemic; COVID-19; consumer; behaviour; consumption; household; expenditure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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