Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Dry Forest Fauna

Kimberly Stephenson, Byron Wilson, Michael Taylor, Kurt McLaren, Rick van Veen, John Kunna and Jayaka Campbell
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Kimberly Stephenson: School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Rd E., Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada
Byron Wilson: Department of Life Sciences, University of the West Indies, Kingston 7, Jamaica
Michael Taylor: Climate Studies Group Mona (CSGM), Department of Physics, University of the West Indies, Kingston 7, Jamaica
Kurt McLaren: Department of Life Sciences, University of the West Indies, Kingston 7, Jamaica
Rick van Veen: Department of Life Sciences, University of the West Indies, Kingston 7, Jamaica
John Kunna: Department of Life Sciences, University of the West Indies, Kingston 7, Jamaica
Jayaka Campbell: Climate Studies Group Mona (CSGM), Department of Physics, University of the West Indies, Kingston 7, Jamaica

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 8, 1-24

Abstract: Tropical dry forests are among the most threatened ecosystems in the world, and those occurring in the insular Caribbean are particularly vulnerable. Climate change represents a significant threat for the Caribbean region and for small islands like Jamaica. Using the Hellshire Hills protected area in Jamaica, a simple model was developed to project future abundance of arthropods and lizards based on current sensitivities to climate variables derived from rainfall and temperature records. The abundances of 20 modelled taxa were predicted more often by rainfall variables than temperature, but both were found to have strong impacts on arthropod and lizard abundance. Most taxa were projected to decrease in abundance by the end of the century under drier and warmer conditions. Where an increase in abundance was projected under a low emissions scenario, this change was reduced or reversed under a high emissions climate change scenario. The validation process showed that, even for a small population, there was reasonable skill in predicting its annual variability. Results of this study show that this simple model can be used to identify the vulnerability of similar sites to the effects of shifting climate and, by extension, their conservation needs.

Keywords: tropical dry forest; biodiversity; bioclimatic modelling; Caribbean (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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