The Future Climate under Different CO 2 Emission Scenarios Significantly Influences the Potential Distribution of Achnatherum inebrians in China

Jia-Min Jiang, Lei Jin, Lei Huang and Wen-Ting Wang
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Jia-Min Jiang: School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Northwest Minzu University, Lanzhou 730030, China
Lei Jin: School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Northwest Minzu University, Lanzhou 730030, China
Lei Huang: Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Wen-Ting Wang: School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Northwest Minzu University, Lanzhou 730030, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 8, 1-15

Abstract: The threat posed by poisonous weeds to grassland ecosystems may be exacerbated by climate change mainly driven by carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Achnatherum inebrians is a common and poisonous grassland weed that is seriously endangering the sustainable development of prairie animal husbandry in Western China. Understanding the influence of future climate change under different CO 2 emission scenarios on the potential distributions of A. inebrians is critical for planning agricultural strategies to manage the continued invasion. An ecological niche model (ENM) was developed using Maxent to predict the potential distribution of A. inebrians under three different CO 2 emission scenarios. Occurrence records of A. inebrians were selected utilizing the nearest neighbor method. Six environmental variables, which were identified through principal component analysis, correlation analysis and their contribution rates, were used to perform the ENM. At the same time, considering the uncertainties of predicting future climates, four global circulation models were used for the Maxent projections with average results calculated. Our results demonstrate differential influences of various CO 2 emission scenarios on the potential distributions of A. inebrians . Before 2050, high CO 2 emission scenarios resulted in a wider potential distribution of A. inebrians , when compared to low CO 2 emission scenarios. However, after 2050, the low CO 2 emission scenarios were more conducive to an expanded potential distribution. In addition, after 2050, high CO 2 emission scenarios maintain the geographical distribution centroids of A. inebrians in lower latitudes, while low CO 2 emission scenarios result in distribution centroids rising to higher latitudes. Further, low CO 2 emission scenarios resulted in the average potential distribution elevation dropping lower than in high CO 2 emission scenarios.

Keywords: ecological niche model; potential distributions; invasive weeds; geographical distribution centroids (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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