Retreat of Major European Tree Species Distribution under Climate Change—Minor Natives to the Rescue?

Olef Koch, Angela Luciana de Avila, Henry Heinen and Axel Tim Albrecht
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Olef Koch: Forest Research Institute of Baden-Württemberg, Wonnhaldestraße 4, 79100 Freiburg, Germany
Angela Luciana de Avila: Forest Research Institute of Baden-Württemberg, Wonnhaldestraße 4, 79100 Freiburg, Germany
Henry Heinen: Forest Research Institute of Baden-Württemberg, Wonnhaldestraße 4, 79100 Freiburg, Germany
Axel Tim Albrecht: Forest Research Institute of Baden-Württemberg, Wonnhaldestraße 4, 79100 Freiburg, Germany

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 9, 1-11

Abstract: Climate change is projected to trigger strong declines in the potential distribution of major tree species in Europe. While minor natives have moved into the spotlight as alternatives, their ecology is often poorly understood. We use an ensemble species distribution modelling approach on a set of promising native tree species to gain insights into their distribution potential under different climate change scenarios. Moreover, we identify the urgency and potential of altered species distributions in favor of minor natives by comparing the niche dynamics of five major native tree species with the set of six minor natives in a case study. Our models project stark range contractions and range shifts among major tree species, strongly amplified under high emission scenarios. Abies alba , Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica are affected the strongest. While also experiencing range shifts, the minor European natives Castanea sativa , Sorbus torminalis , and Ulmus laevis all considerably expand their range potential across climate change scenarios. Accompanied by Carpinus betulus, with a stable range size, they hold the potential to substantially contribute to sustainably adapting European forest to climate change.

Keywords: species distribution modelling; climate change; native species; alternative species; adaptation; forest management; Europe (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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