A Quantitative Framework for Propagation Paths of Natech Domino Effects in Chemical Industrial Parks: Part II—Risk Assessment and Mitigation System

Yunfeng Yang, Guohua Chen and Yuanfei Zhao ()
Additional contact information
Yunfeng Yang: Guangdong Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Guangzhou 510060, China
Guohua Chen: Guangdong Provincial Science and Technology Collaborative Innovation Center for Work Safety, Guangzhou 510640, China
Yuanfei Zhao: Guangdong Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Guangzhou 510060, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 10, 1-19

Abstract: This is the second part of the quantitative framework for the propagation paths of Natech domino effects in chemical industrial parks, which focuses on risk assessment and a mitigation system based on the propagation path probabilities obtained from Part I. In this paper, the risk assessment model for the propagation paths of the domino effects induced by natural disasters are developed, and the risk level is quantitatively analyzed using individual risk and social risk indexes and compared with the risk acceptance standard to determine whether the risk in the plant area is at the risk acceptance level. Furthermore, the chain-cutting disaster mitigation model for domino effects induced by Natech events and the full-life-cycle mitigation system are proposed, and the effectiveness of mitigation measures is also evaluated. The case analysis results show that Natech events and multi-level domino effects can increase the risk to an unacceptable level, and taking corresponding mitigation measures could reduce the risk to an acceptable level.

Keywords: domino effect; Natech event; risk assessment; mitigation system; probability calculation; propagation path (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/10/8306/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/10/8306/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:10:p:8306-:d:1151114

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().