Geospatial-Temporal Dynamics of Land Use in the Juárez Valley: Urbanization and Displacement of Agriculture

Carlos Manjarrez-Domínguez, Mario Iván Uc-Campos (), Mario Edgar Esparza-Vela, María del Rosario Baray-Guerrero, Omar Giner-Chávez and Eduardo Santellano-Estrada ()
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Carlos Manjarrez-Domínguez: Facultad de Ciencias Agrotecnológicas, Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua, Chihuahua 31310, Mexico
Mario Iván Uc-Campos: Licenciatura en Geoinformática, Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez, División Cuauhtemoc, Ciudad Cuauhtémoc, Chihuahua 31600, Mexico
Mario Edgar Esparza-Vela: Facultad de Zootecnia y Ecología, Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua, Chihuahua 31453, Mexico
María del Rosario Baray-Guerrero: Facultad de Ciencias Agrotecnológicas, Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua, Chihuahua 31310, Mexico
Omar Giner-Chávez: Facultad de Zootecnia y Ecología, Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua, Chihuahua 31453, Mexico
Eduardo Santellano-Estrada: Facultad de Zootecnia y Ecología, Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua, Chihuahua 31453, Mexico

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 11, 1-20

Abstract: Urbanization and industrial development in the Juárez Valley, Chihuahua, Mexico, have led to the abandonment and loss of productive agricultural areas. However, the extent and dynamics of this phenomenon are not precisely known due to the lack of updated information. Therefore, it is necessary to geospatially represent these changes over time and predict their probability of persistence into the future to provide decision-making tools for this border region of Mexico. Landsat images were processed, and random forest was applied as a classifier to obtain land uses from 1980 to 2020. The Land Change Modeler options in Terrset™ were executed to generate land use changes, persistence and probabilities. Results showed that urban, built-up areas gained 19,962 ha by 2020 while crops lost 1675 ha. Agricultural permanence has been consolidated over time (persistence until 2020 of 0.83), but evidence suggests that this persistence will decrease in the future due to urbanization (decreasing to 0.59 by 2100). This could jeopardize the availability of primary products and food, lead to land abandonment and exacerbate socio-demographic expansion in this vulnerable region.

Keywords: future; GEE; geospatial; GIS; LCM; LULC; LULCC; modeler; prediction; remote sensing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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