Potential Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Water Resources in Riyadh Region, Saudi Arabia

Mustafa El-Rawy (), Heba Fathi, Wouter Zijl, Fahad Alshehri (), Sattam Almadani, Faisal K. Zaidi, Mofleh Aldawsri and Mohamed Elsayed Gabr
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Mustafa El-Rawy: Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Minia University, Minia 61111, Egypt
Heba Fathi: College of Design and Architecture, Jazan University, Jazan 45142, Saudi Arabia
Wouter Zijl: Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Fahad Alshehri: Abdullah Alrushaid Chair for Earth Science Remote Sensing Research, Geology and Geophysics Department, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia
Sattam Almadani: Abdullah Alrushaid Chair for Earth Science Remote Sensing Research, Geology and Geophysics Department, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia
Faisal K. Zaidi: Abdullah Alrushaid Chair for Earth Science Remote Sensing Research, Geology and Geophysics Department, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia
Mofleh Aldawsri: Abdullah Alrushaid Chair for Earth Science Remote Sensing Research, Geology and Geophysics Department, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia
Mohamed Elsayed Gabr: Civil Engineering Department, Higher Institute for Engineering and Technology, Ministry of High Education, New Damietta 34512, Egypt

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 12, 1-17

Abstract: The water supply in Saudi Arabia is already depleted. Climate change will exacerbate the demand for these resources. This paper examines how climate change affects the water demands of Saudi Arabia’s most important food crops: wheat, clover, vegetables, and dates. To reduce the adverse climate change impacts on these crops’ productivity, as well as their irrigation water requirements (IWR), a number of adaptation techniques were investigated. The study was carried out for the Ar Riyadh region, Saudi Arabia, with a cultivated area of 179,730 ha. In this study, five climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, were used to forecast and investigate the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural water resources in the Al-Riyadh Region of Saudi Arabia. To simulate IWRs under the present and projected climate change scenarios, CROPWAT8.0 was used. The results showed that the maximum increase ratio in 2100 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, will be 4.46% and 12.11% higher than in the current case (2020). The results showed that the projected maximum temperatures in 2100 will be increased by 4.46% and 12.11%, respectively, under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, compared to the current case (2020), supporting past research on the Arabian Peninsula that revealed that both short- and long-term temperature increases are anticipated to be considerable. Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the projected ET o was found to be increased by 2.18% and 6.35% in 2100, respectively. Given that evapotranspiration closely mirrors the temperature behavior in the study region from June to August, our data suggest that crop and irrigation demand may increase in the mid to long term. The findings indicate that Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’s capital and commercial hub, will require more water to irrigate agricultural land because of the expanding ETo trend. Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the projected growth irrigation water requirement (GIWR) will be increased by 3.1% and 6.7% in 2100, respectively. Under SSP5-8.5, crop areas of wheat, clover, dates, maize, citrus, tomato, potato, and other vegetables in Ar Riyadh will decrease by 6.56%, 7.17%, 5.90%, 6.43%, 5.47%, 6.99%, 5.21%, and 5.5%, respectively, in 2100. Conversely, under SSP2-4.5, the crop areas will decrease by 3.10%, 3.67%, 2.35%, 3.83%, 2.32%, 4.18%, 1.72%, and 2.38% in 2100, respectively. This research could aid in clarifying the adverse climate change impacts on GIWR in Ar Riyad, as well as improving water resource management planning.

Keywords: irrigation water requirement; climate change; water resources management; evapotranspiration; Saudi Arabia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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