An Analysis of Runoff Variation in a Small Basin in the Loess Plateau: Identifying the Variation Causes and Implications for Sustainable Water Management

Wenqing Li, Guohua He (), Yong Zhao, Zhao Liu, Fan He and Haibin Wang
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Wenqing Li: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycles in River Basins, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Guohua He: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycles in River Basins, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Yong Zhao: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycles in River Basins, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Zhao Liu: Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Regions of the Ministry of Education, School of Water and Environment, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China
Fan He: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycles in River Basins, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Haibin Wang: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycles in River Basins, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 12, 1-22

Abstract: Analyzing the characteristics and causes of runoff variation in a typical small basin is beneficial for ecological restoration in the Loess Plateau. This study employed a series of statistical methodologies to examine the characteristics of meteorological changes and underlying surface evolution in the Qishui River Basin (QRB). To differentiate the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff variation, we applied the Choudhury–Yang formula and the Double Mass Curve (DMC) method. Subsequently, by incorporating future watershed protection strategies and various SSP scenarios, we utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate future runoff while employing the DMC to identify underlying causes of runoff variation. The results suggested that human activity has a slightly greater impact than climate change on reducing runoff during the historical period, with only a 1% difference. However, this will change in the future as human impact becomes increasingly significant. Human activities such as afforestation have dual effects, encompassing positive effects such as improving water quality and mitigating soil erosion, as well as negative consequences such as diminishing local water availability and exacerbating drought. Effective policies should be implemented, involving the use of appropriate tree species and planting methods, finding an appropriate value of forest area, monitoring and evaluation, etc., in order to ensure that the policies are aligned with the broader social, economic, and environmental goals of the QRB. These findings provide valuable guidance for policy-makers in developing management strategies for future environmental changes.

Keywords: runoff; contribution analysis; water security; small basin; Loess Plateau (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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