Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Values and Topography-Driven Effects Based on Land Use Change: A Case Study of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

Hui Li (), Yilin Huang, Yilu Zhou, Shuntao Wang, Wanqi Guo, Yan Liu, Junzhi Wang, Qing Xu, Xiaokang Zhou, Kexin Yi, Qingchun Hou, Lixia Liao and Wei Lin ()
Additional contact information
Hui Li: College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Yilin Huang: College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Yilu Zhou: College of Architecture and Planning, Yunnan University, Kunming 650300, China
Shuntao Wang: College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Wanqi Guo: College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Yan Liu: College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Junzhi Wang: College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Qing Xu: College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Xiaokang Zhou: College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Kexin Yi: College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Qingchun Hou: College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Lixia Liao: College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Wei Lin: College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 12, 1-19

Abstract: The Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is rich in natural and marine resources, and it is scientifically valuable to study the evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of the ecosystem service values (ESVs) of the GBA for the governance and conservation of its ecosystems. Based on the land use changes in the GBA from 2000 to 2020, the ESVs in the GBA were measured at the grid scale, and the Markov model was used to predict the ESVs in 2030; the calculated results were used to analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the ESVs during the 30-year period, while the driving role of the topographic factors on the ESVs is revealed through the construction of the geographically weighted regression model (GWR). The results show the following: (1) During the 20-year period, the area of arable land and water in the GBA fluctuated greatly, with the area decreasing year by year and shifting mainly into construction land; in terms of shifting the center of gravity of the land, and the center of gravity of the grassland and unused land shifted the greatest distance due to the expansion of construction land, with the center of gravity shifting westward as a whole. (2) The ecosystem services (ESs) in the GBA show obvious aggregation in the spatial distribution, with the total ESVs decreasing year by year. Among them, the areas with an increasing total value are mainly located in the cities of Zhaoqing and Huizhou in the GBA, accounting for 27%, and the areas with a decreasing total value year by year are mainly located in the dense urban areas in the central part of the GBA, accounting for 35%, and the area is increasing, indicating that the habitat quality is deteriorating, and the model prediction shows that the value of ecosystem services in 2030 have a decreasing trend under the development of the natural state. (3) Topographic factors have a significant influence on the ESVs, and in terms of spatial distribution, the areas with the strongest effect are distributed in the northwestern and northeastern parts of the GBA, and the main uses for the land are wood land, arable land, water and the area of the water–land intersection near the sea.

Keywords: The Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area; ecosystem service value; temporal and spatial evolution; topographic factors; geographically weighted regression model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/12/9691/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/12/9691/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:12:p:9691-:d:1172994

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().