Towards Sustainable Energy–Water–Environment Nexus System Considering the Interactions between Climatic, Social and Economic Factors: A Case Study of Fujian, China

Xiao Li, Yu Zhang, Jing Liu () and Zuomeng Sun
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Xiao Li: Department of Communication, Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen 361024, China
Yu Zhang: School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen 361024, China
Jing Liu: Department of Communication, Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen 361024, China
Zuomeng Sun: School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen 361024, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 12, 1-22

Abstract: This study develops a factorial Bayesian least-squares support vector machine-based energy–water–environment nexus system optimization (i.e., FBL–EWEO) model. FBL–EWEO can provide dependable predictions for electricity demand, quantify the interactions among different factors, and present optimal system planning strategies. The application to Fujian Province is driven by three global climate models (i.e., GCMs) under two SSPs, as well as two levels of economic and social factors’ growth rates. Results revealed in the planning horizon: (1) Fujian would encounter rainy and warming trends (e.g., [2.17645, 4.51247] mm/year of precipitation and [0.0072, 0.0073] °C/year of mean temperature); (2) economic, social, and climatic factors contribute 62.30%, 35.50%, and 1.47% to electricity demand variations; (3) electricity demand would grow with time (increase by [64.21, 74.79]%); (4) the ratio of new energy power would rise to [70.84, 73.53]%; (5) authorities should focus on photovoltaic and wind power plants construction (their proportions increase from [0.81, 1.83]% to [9.14, 9.56]%, [1.33, 4.16]% to [11.44, 15.58]%, respectively); and (6) air pollutants/CO 2 emissions would averagely decline [51.97, 53.90]%, and water consumption would decrease [41.77%, 42.25]%. Findings provide technical support to sustainable development.

Keywords: climatic–social–economic changes; electricity demand; energy–water–environment nexus; planning; simulation–optimization; uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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