Research on an Evaluation Model of Urban Seismic Resilience Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Chengdu, China

Xunchang Li (), Yifan Liu, Wenyong Zhang and Yaqian Wang
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Xunchang Li: Department of Safety Engineering, School of Geology Engineering and Geomatics, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710000, China
Yifan Liu: Department of Safety Engineering, School of Geology Engineering and Geomatics, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710000, China
Wenyong Zhang: China Electric Power Construction Group East China Survey and Design Institute Co., Ltd., Hangzhou 310000, China
Yaqian Wang: Department of Safety Engineering, School of Geology Engineering and Geomatics, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710000, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 13, 1-14

Abstract: In response to the frequent occurrence of earthquakes in Chengdu, which poses a great threat to the economy, social development, production, and people’s lives, in this study, we construct an index evaluation system and a system dynamics model for urban seismic resilience based on an analysis of the interaction between earthquake disasters and the urban system. Four types of schemes, namely, the current continuity type, economic development type, government intervention type, and resilience construction type, were designed, and the dynamic evaluation and simulation prediction of Chengdu’s seismic resilience capacity under each scheme were conducted. The research results show that, compared with the other three schemes, the resilience construction type has better universality and expansibility in terms of improving Chengdu’s seismic resilience. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain a certain level of economic development, to attach importance to the construction of monitoring and warning systems, and to strive to improve emergency rescue capabilities and disaster awareness education. The model and evaluation indicators have strong applicability, and the research results can provide a theoretical reference for the evaluation of seismic resilience in Chengdu.

Keywords: public safety; resilience; urban system; system dynamics; earthquake disaster; simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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