Identification of the Most Important Events to the Occurrence of a Disaster Using Maritime Examples

Dorota Chybowska, Leszek Chybowski (), Jarosław Myśków () and Jerzy Manerowski
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Dorota Chybowska: Independent Researcher, 72-123 Goleniów, Poland
Leszek Chybowski: Department of Machine Construction and Materials, Faculty of Marine Engineering, Maritime University of Szczecin, 2 Willowa St., 71-650 Szczecin, Poland
Jarosław Myśków: Department of Marine Power Plants, Faculty of Marine Engineering, Maritime University of Szczecin, 2 Willowa St., 71-650 Szczecin, Poland
Jerzy Manerowski: Air Force Institute of Technology, 6 Księcia Bolesława St., 01-494 Warsaw, Poland

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 13, 1-25

Abstract: Previous studies on maritime disasters have noted the importance of searching for their causal factors in the analysis of different types of vessels and various regions where accidents have occurred. The main objective of the study that this article presents was to develop a new approach to modelling and causal analysis of the course of maritime disasters in order to provide a holistic evaluation of this phenomenon. The novel approach adopted to support the thesis combined event network analysis and fault tree analysis (used in functional analysis for modelling the structures of systems) in the process analysis. The authors advanced a thesis that, in the studied population of disasters, there were dominant classes of basic events in each phase of the process during the course of a disaster (distinguished by means of an event network). Thirty maritime disasters that occurred between 1912 and 2019 were selected for quantitative and qualitative analyses. In each disaster, the different phases of its course were distinguished: latent, initiating, escalating, critical, and energy release. A total of 608 basic events were identified in the population, enabling the identification and characterisation of 44 classes of events. The importance of the events in each of the phases was calculated by means of importance measures. The findings confirmed the thesis. At the same time, an analysis of the importance of basic events in each phase revealed that the most common basic events are not always the most important.

Keywords: accident causation; disaster at sea; event importance; fault tree analysis; event network analysis; cause and effect process modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:13:p:10613-:d:1187551

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