Historical Trends and Characteristics of Meteorological Drought Based on Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index over the Past 70 Years in China (1951–2020)

Jiwei Sun, Shuoben Bi (), Bashar Bashir, Zhangxi Ge, Kexin Wu, Abdullah Alsalman, Brian Odhiambo Ayugi and Karam Alsafadi ()
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Jiwei Sun: School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Shuoben Bi: School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Bashar Bashir: Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, King Saud University, P.O. Box 800, Riyadh 11421, Saudi Arabia
Zhangxi Ge: School of Management Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Kexin Wu: School of Management Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Abdullah Alsalman: Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, King Saud University, P.O. Box 800, Riyadh 11421, Saudi Arabia
Brian Odhiambo Ayugi: Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul 01811, Republic of Korea
Karam Alsafadi: School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 14, 1-25

Abstract: Against the backdrop of global climate change, the frequency of drought events is increasing, leading to significant impacts on human society and development. Therefore, it is crucial to study the propagation patterns and trends of drought characteristics over a long timescale. The main objective of this study is to delineate the dynamics of drought characteristics by examining their propagation patterns in China from 1951 to 2020. In this study, precipitation data from meteorological stations across mainland China were used. A comprehensive dataset consisting of 700 stations over the past 70 years was collected and analyzed. To ensure data accuracy, the GPCC (the Global Precipitation Climatology Center) database was employed for data correction and gap-filling. Long-term drought evolution was assessed using both the SPI-12 (standardized precipitation index) and SPEI-12 (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) to detect drought characteristics. Two Moran indices were applied to identify propagation patterns, and the MK (the Mann–Kendall) analysis method, along with the Theil–Sen slope estimator, was utilized to track historical trends of these indices. The findings of this study reveal the following key results: (i) Based on the SPI-12, the main areas of China that are prone to drought are mostly concentrated around the Hu Huanyong Line, indicating a tendency towards drying based on the decadal change analysis. (ii) The distribution of drought-prone areas in China, as indicated by the SPEI-12, is extensive and widely distributed, with a correlation to urbanization and population density. These drought-prone areas are gradually expanding. (iii) Between 2010 and 2011, China experienced the most severe drought event in nearly 70 years, affecting nearly 50% of the country’s area with a high degree of severity. This event may be attributed to atmospheric circulation variability, exacerbated by the impact of urbanization on precipitation and drought. (iv) The frequency of drought occurrence in China gradually decreases from south to north, with the northeast and northern regions being less affected. However, areas with less frequent droughts experience longer and more severe drought durations. In conclusion, this study provides valuable insights into the characteristics and propagation patterns of drought in China, offering essential information for the development of effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of drought events.

Keywords: drought; Moran’s I Index; Mann–Kendall test; urban droughts; standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index; drought characterization; evapotranspiration; GPCC (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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