Climate Change and Cereal Crops Productivity in Afghanistan: Evidence Based on Panel Regression Model

Meraj Sarwary, Senthilnathan Samiappan, Ghulam Dastgir Khan () and Masaood Moahid
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Meraj Sarwary: Department of Agricultural Economics & Extension, Agricultural Faculty, Nangarhar University, Jalalabad 2601, Afghanistan
Senthilnathan Samiappan: Department of Agricultural Economics, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore 641003, India
Ghulam Dastgir Khan: Center for Peaceful and Sustainable Futures (CEPEAS), The IDEC Institute, Hiroshima University, Higashi Hiroshima 739-8529, Japan
Masaood Moahid: Department of Agricultural Economics & Extension, Agricultural Faculty, Nangarhar University, Jalalabad 2601, Afghanistan

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 14, 1-13

Abstract: Afghanistan frequently faces drought and other climate change-related challenges due to rising temperatures and decreased precipitation in many areas of the country. Therefore, acquiring a thorough comprehension of the implications of climate change on the cultivation of key cereal crops is of the utmost importance. This is particularly significant in the context of Afghanistan, where the agricultural sector plays a pivotal role, contributing close to a quarter of the country’s national gross domestic product and serving as the primary source of employment for 70% of the rural workforce. In this paper, we employ a panel regression model to evaluate the relationship between climate change and cereal productivity in Afghanistan’s agro-climatic zones. Temperature had a significant negative impact, implying that a mean temperature increase of 1 °C decreased wheat and barley yields by 271 and 221 kg/ha, respectively. Future medium- and high-emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) for the period 2021–2050 were considered for future yield predictions. To project future climate change impacts, the estimated panel data regression coefficients were used to compute the projected changes in cereal yields. During the period 2021–2050, the mean yield of wheat is projected to decrease by 21 or 28%, the rice yield will decrease by 4.92 or 6.10%, and the barley yield will decrease by 387 or 535 kg/ha in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, respectively, further emphasizing the need for targeted actions to tackle the effects of climate change on agriculture in Afghanistan in alignment with SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 13 (Climate Action).

Keywords: Afghanistan; cereal crops; climate change; SDGs; fixed-effect; random-effect (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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