Economic Analysis of an Integrated Steel Plant Equipped with a Blast Furnace or Oxygen Blast Furnace

Jiayuan Song, Zeyi Jiang (), Yongjie Zhang, Zhicheng Han, Yuanxiang Lu, Huiyao Dong and Ying Zhang
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Jiayuan Song: School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
Zeyi Jiang: School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
Yongjie Zhang: Central Research Institute, China BAOWU Steel Group Corporation Limited, Shanghai 200126, China
Zhicheng Han: ENFI Research Institute, China ENFI Engineering Corporation, No. 12 Fuxing Road, Beijing 100038, China
Yuanxiang Lu: School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
Huiyao Dong: JMP Statistical Discovery LLC, SAS Campus Drive, Cary, NC 27513, USA
Ying Zhang: JMP Statistical Discovery LLC, SAS Campus Drive, Cary, NC 27513, USA

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 15, 1-14

Abstract: The oxygen blast furnace with top gas recycling (TGR-OBF) ironmaking technology can reduce CO 2 emissions, especially when combined with carbon capture and storage technology (CCS). However, the successful commercialization of technology cannot be achieved without economic evaluation. This study applied the Box–Behnken design method and a Monte Carlo simulation-based risk analysis to assess the sensitivity of influencing factors affecting the net present value (NPV) of an integrated steel plant (ISP) and to predict the impact of variable market scenarios on the NPV of three ISPs. The results indicated that among the three ISPs, the conventional ISP (C-ISP) is the least profitable, followed by the ISP equipped with TGR-OBF and CCS (ISP-OBF-CCS), and the most profitable is the ISP equipped with TGR-OBF (ISP-OBF), which is at least CNY 0.392 Bn and CNY 1.934 Bn more profitable than the ISP-OBF-CCS and C-ISP respectively. Under the current Chinese carbon trading policy and the cost of CCS, CCS technology does not make a company profitable. This study explored an approach for analyzing ISP economic applicability under uncertain markets, which can be used as a reference for the development of alternative processes for steel production.

Keywords: Box–Behnken design; CCS; economic analysis; integrated steel plant; Monte Carlo simulation; oxygen blast furnace (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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