The Effect of Energy Consumption, Income, and Population Growth on CO 2 Emissions: Evidence from NARDL and Machine Learning Models

Mansoor Ahmed, Wen Huan, Nafees Ali, Ahsan Shafi (), Muhsan Ehsan (), Kamal Abdelrahman, Anser Ali Khan, Saiq Shakeel Abbasi and Mohammed S. Fnais
Additional contact information
Mansoor Ahmed: Department of Finance and Economics, Software Engineering Institute of Guangzhou, Guangzhou 510900, China
Wen Huan: Department of Finance and Economics, Software Engineering Institute of Guangzhou, Guangzhou 510900, China
Nafees Ali: State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430071, China
Ahsan Shafi: School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
Muhsan Ehsan: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Bahria School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Bahria University, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
Kamal Abdelrahman: Department of Geology and Geophysics, College of Science, King Saud University, P.O. Box 2455, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia
Anser Ali Khan: International Development, Community and Environment (IDCE), Clark University, Worcester, MA 01610, USA
Saiq Shakeel Abbasi: Tyche Consultants (SMC) Pvt. Ltd., Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
Mohammed S. Fnais: Department of Geology and Geophysics, College of Science, King Saud University, P.O. Box 2455, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 15, 1-19

Abstract: With population and income growth, the need for energy has increased in developing and emerging economies, which has inevitably led to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions (CO 2 e). This paper investigates the impact of energy consumption on CO 2 e influenced by population growth, energy consumption per capita, and income. In particular, this paper investigates whether or not an increase in energy consumption, energy intensity, energy consumption per capita, population growth, and income impacts CO 2 e in China, India, and the USA. The study applied the non-linear Autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and machine learning techniques. We found a significant impact of energy consumption per capita on the CO 2 emissions in China, India, and USA. Furthermore, the results revealed that, when income increased, CO 2 emissions increased in India, but decreased in the USA. The results confirmed that population growth increases CO 2 emissions only in India. The results revealed that a decrease in energy intensity significantly improves the environmental quality in China and India. Finally, we forecasted the CO 2 e trend from 2017 to 2025. The results revealed an upcoming increase in CO 2 e levels in China and India. Conversely, the forecasted results demonstrated a downward trend of CO 2 e emissions in the USA.

Keywords: energy consumption; CO 2 emission; NARDL; machine learning models; China; India; USA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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