Modeling the Impacts of Soil Management on Avoided Deforestation and REDD+ Payments in the Brazilian Amazon: A Systems Approach

Alexandre Anders Brasil (), Humberto Angelo, Alexandre Nascimento de Almeida (), Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli Matricardi, Henrique Marinho Leite Chaves and Maristela Franchetti de Paula
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Alexandre Anders Brasil: Forestry Department, Universidade de Brasília, Brasília 73345-010, Brazil
Humberto Angelo: Forestry Department, Universidade de Brasília, Brasília 73345-010, Brazil
Alexandre Nascimento de Almeida: Planaltina Campus, Universidade de Brasília, Planaltina 73345-010, Brazil
Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli Matricardi: Forestry Department, Universidade de Brasília, Brasília 73345-010, Brazil
Henrique Marinho Leite Chaves: Forestry Department, Universidade de Brasília, Brasília 73345-010, Brazil
Maristela Franchetti de Paula: Administration Department, Universidade Estadual do Centro-Oeste, Guarapuava 85015-430, Brazil

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 15, 1-27

Abstract: An Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) was employed to develop a Narrative Policy Framework (NPF) and a quantitative model to investigate the changes in land use within the Brazilian Amazon. The process began by creating a theoretical NPF using a ‘systems thinking’ approach. Subsequently, a ‘system dynamic model’ was built based on an extensive review of the literature and on multiple quantitative datasets to simulate the impacts of the NPF, specifically focusing on the conversion of forests into open land for ranching and the implementation of soil management practices as a macro-level policy aimed at preserving soil quality and ranching yields. Various fallow scenarios were tested to simulate their effects on deforestation patterns. The results indicate that implementing fallow practices as a policy measure could reduce deforestation rates while simultaneously ensuring sustainable long-term agricultural productivity, thus diminishing the necessity to clear new forest land. Moreover, when combined with payments for avoided deforestation, such as REDD+ carbon offsets, the opportunity costs associated with ranching land can be utilized to compensate for the loss of gross income resulting from the policy. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the significance of different model variables, revealing that lower cattle prices require resources for REDD+ payments, and vice-versa. The findings indicate that, at the macro level, payments between USD 2.5 and USD 5.0 per MgC ha −1 have the potential to compensate the foregone cattle production from not converting forest into ranching land. This study demonstrates that employing an IAM with a systems approach facilitates the participation of various stakeholders, including farmers and landowners, in policy discussions. It also enables the establishment of effective land use and management policies that mitigate deforestation and soil degradation, making it a robust initiative to address environmental, climate change, and economic sustainability issues.

Keywords: systems thinking; systems modeling; soil conservation; REDD+; Amazon deforestation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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