Global Discontinuity: Time for a Paradigm Shift in Global Scenario Analysis

Dale S. Rothman, Paul Raskin, Kasper Kok, John Robinson, Jill Jäger, Barry Hughes and Paul C. Sutton ()
Additional contact information
Dale S. Rothman: Department of Computational and Data Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA
Paul Raskin: Tellus Institute, Quincy, MA 02171, USA
Kasper Kok: Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
John Robinson: Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M52 3K7, Canada
Jill Jäger: Independent Researcher, 1210 Vienna, Austria
Barry Hughes: Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO 80208, USA
Paul C. Sutton: Department of Geography and the Environment, University of Denver, Denver, CO 80208, USA

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 17, 1-12

Abstract: The evolutionary paths of social-ecological systems comprise periods of structural continuity punctuated by moments of convulsive change. Various forms of systemic global shock could materialize in the coming decades, triggered by the climate crisis, social disruption, economic breakdown, financial collapse, nuclear conflict, or pandemics. The unfolding COVID-19 pandemic stands as a real-time example of an interruption of historic continuity. More hopefully, deep institutional and cultural shifts could rapidly usher in more resilient forms of global civilization. These plausible possibilities challenge scenario studies to spotlight discontinuous futures, an imperative that has not been adequately met. Several factors—for example, gradualist theories of change, scientific reticence, the lure of quantitative tractability, embeddedness in policymaking processes—have rendered mainstream scenario analysis ill-suited to the task. The emphasis on continuity fails to alert decision makers and the public to the risks and opportunities latent in our singular historical moment. A shift to a paradigm that foregrounds discontinuity is long overdue, calling for efforts to broaden the base of persons involved; devote more attention to balancing narrative storytelling and a broader range of quantitative methods; and apply and develop methods to explicitly consider discontinuities in global scenario development.

Keywords: scenario development; systems modeling; discontinuity; tipping points; black swans; integrated assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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