An Adaptive Decision Tree Regression Modeling for the Output Power of Large-Scale Solar (LSS) Farm Forecasting

Nabilah Mat Kassim, Sathiswary Santhiran, Ammar Ahmed Alkahtani, Mohammad Aminul Islam (), Sieh Kiong Tiong, Mohd Yusrizal Mohd Yusof and Nowshad Amin ()
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Nabilah Mat Kassim: Institute of Sustainable Energy (ISE), Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Kajang 43000, Selangor, Malaysia
Sathiswary Santhiran: Institute of Sustainable Energy (ISE), Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Kajang 43000, Selangor, Malaysia
Ammar Ahmed Alkahtani: Institute of Sustainable Energy (ISE), Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Kajang 43000, Selangor, Malaysia
Mohammad Aminul Islam: Department of Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Sieh Kiong Tiong: Institute of Sustainable Energy (ISE), Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Kajang 43000, Selangor, Malaysia
Mohd Yusrizal Mohd Yusof: TNB Renewables Sdn. Bhd., No. 16A, Persiaran Barat, Petaling Jaya 46050, Selangor, Malaysia
Nowshad Amin: Institute of Sustainable Energy (ISE), Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Kajang 43000, Selangor, Malaysia

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 18, 1-12

Abstract: The installation of large-scale solar (LSS) photovoltaic (PV) power plants continues to rise globally as well as in Malaysia. The data provided by LSS PV consist of five weather stations with seven parameters, a 22-unit inverter, and 1-unit PQM Meter Grid as a big dataset. These big data are rapidly changing every minute, they lack data quality when missing data, and need to be analyzed for a longer duration to leverage their benefits to prevent misleading information. This paper proposed the forecasting power LSS PV using decision tree regression from three types of input data. Case 1 used all 35 parameters from five weather stations. For Case 2, only seven parameters were used by calculating the mean of five weather stations. While Case 3 was chosen from an index correlation of more than 0.8. The analysis of the historical data was carried out from June 2019 until December 2020. Moreover, the mean absolute error (MAE) was also calculated. A reliability test using the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) and coefficient of determination (R 2 ) was done upon comparing with actual historical data. As a result, Case 2 was proposed to be the best input dataset for the forecasting algorithm.

Keywords: large-scale solar PV; decision tree regression; forecast; PV plant output; global irradiance; energy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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