Probabilistic Approach to Transient Unsaturated Slope Stability Associated with Precipitation Event

Katherin Rocio Cano Bezerra da Costa, Ana Paola do Nascimento Dantas, André Luís Brasil Cavalcante () and André Pacheco de Assis
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Katherin Rocio Cano Bezerra da Costa: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Brasília, Brasília 70910-900, DF, Brazil
Ana Paola do Nascimento Dantas: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Brasília, Brasília 70910-900, DF, Brazil
André Luís Brasil Cavalcante: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Brasília, Brasília 70910-900, DF, Brazil
André Pacheco de Assis: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Brasília, Brasília 70910-900, DF, Brazil

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 21, 1-19

Abstract: The massif rupture is not always reached under saturated conditions; therefore, the analysis of the unsaturated phenomenon is necessary in some cases. This study performed a probabilistic approach for unsaturated and transient conditions to understand the contribution of physical and hydraulic parameters involved in slope stability. The proposed slope stability model was based on the infinite slope method and a new unsaturated constitutive shear strength model proposed in 2021 by Cavalcante and Mascarenhas. The first-order second-moment method, which incorporated multiple stochastic variables, was used in the probabilistic analysis, allowing the incorporation of seven independent variables for the probability of failure analysis as well as for quantifying the contribution of the variables to the total variance of a factor of safety at any state of moisture. This implementation allows a more realistic estimative for the probability of failure, showing in a practical way the decrease and increase of the probability of failure during a rain event. The model provided promising results highlighting the need to migrate from deterministic analyses to more robust probabilistic analyses, considering the most significant number of stochastic variables. The proposed model helps to understand the influence of moisture content on slope stability, being a possible tool in natural disaster risk management.

Keywords: slope stability; probability of failure; unsaturated soils (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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