Future Travel Intentions in Light of Risk and Uncertainty: An Extended Theory of Planned Behavior

Emrullah Erul, Kyle Maurice Woosnam, John Salazar, Abdullah Uslu, José António C. Santos () and Erose Sthapit
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Emrullah Erul: Department of Tourism Management, Tourism Faculty, İzmir Katip Celebi University, 35620 İzmir, Turkey
Kyle Maurice Woosnam: Parks, Recreation and Tourism Management Program, Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
John Salazar: Department of Agricultural & Applied Economics, College of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
Abdullah Uslu: Department of Tourism Management, Manavgat Tourism Faculty, Akdeniz University, 07600 Antalya, Turkey
José António C. Santos: School of Management, Hospitality and Tourism, Campus da Penha, Universidade do Algarve, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal
Erose Sthapit: Department of Marketing, Retail and Tourism, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester M34 5PH, UK

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 22, 1-20

Abstract: COVID-19 has affected travel and will undoubtedly impact how people view travel and future intentions to travel as we adjust to life moving forward. Understanding how people arrive at these travel intentions will be paramount for managers and planners in determining how best to reactively and proactively plan for tourism, especially considering perceived risk and uncertainty related to COVID-19. By extending the theory of planned behavior, this study aims to examine the relationship between perceived risk, perceived uncertainty, subjective norms, attitudes about future travel, and perceived behavioral control in explaining individuals’ intentions to travel in the near future. This study employed a quantitative research method, and data were gathered using an online questionnaire distributed through Qualtrics from a sample of 541 potential travelers (representing residents of 46 US states) from 23 June 2020 to 1 July 2020. Of the eight hypotheses tested, four were supported. Surprisingly, neither perceived risk nor uncertainty were significant within the model. Subjective norms significantly predicted both attitudes about traveling and perceived behavioral control. Subjective norms and perceived behavioral control, in turn, explained a moderate degree of variation in individuals’ intentions to travel. Study implications, limitations, and future research suggestions are offered. One of the main managerial implications includes the need for destinations to be proactive and focus on intentional planning for sustainable tourism.

Keywords: perceived risk and uncertainty; subjective norms; perceived behavioral control; Qualtrics; structural equation modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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