Consequence Assessment Model for Gasoline Transport: Belgrade Case Study Based on Multi-Agent Simulation

Strahinja Pantelić (), Branko Milovanović, Marko Đogatović, Predrag Živanović, Stanko Bajčetić, Slaven Tica and Andrea Nađ
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Strahinja Pantelić: Department for Road and Urban Transport, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Branko Milovanović: Department for Road and Urban Transport, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Marko Đogatović: Department for Postal Traffic, Networks and Technical Cybernetics, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Predrag Živanović: Department for Road and Urban Transport, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Stanko Bajčetić: Department for Road and Urban Transport, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Slaven Tica: Department for Road and Urban Transport, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Andrea Nađ: Department for Road and Urban Transport, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 3, 1-14

Abstract: The transport of dangerous goods by road represents a specific problem, considering that these vehicles can have great negative effects on people and the environment in the event of an accident. In the last few decades, various methods have been defined for risk management in this area. Most of these methods are based on reducing the probability and the consequences of an accident. In a large number of cases, the probability of the occurrence is in much greater focus than the consequences. To fill this gap, we created a new model for assessing the consequences on the population in the event of a fire during gasoline transportation. The model is based on the hypothesis that hazard intensity is directly proportional to the intensity of the heat generated by the fire and inversely proportional to the distance from the accident. The model was implemented through a Belgrade case study with multi-agent simulation. The results of the paper show that there is a 43% probability that there would be between 11 and 28 casualties in the observed location in the event of an accident. This confirms the initial hypothesis and shows that the model can be successfully used to assess the consequences.

Keywords: dangerous goods’ transport; risk management; consequence assessment; multi-agent simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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