Advanced Forecasting Modeling to Early Predict Powdery Mildew First Appearance in Different Vines Cultivars

Roberto Valori, Corrado Costa, Simone Figorilli, Luciano Ortenzi, Rossella Manganiello, Roberto Ciccoritti, Francesca Cecchini, Massimo Morassut, Noemi Bevilacqua, Giorgio Colatosti, Giovanni Pica, Daniele Cedroni and Francesca Antonucci ()
Additional contact information
Roberto Valori: STAPHYT, Contract Research Organization (CRO) in the Fields of Agrosciences and Regulatory Affairs, Main Facility Italy, Via della Meccanica 28, 04011 Aprilia, Italy
Corrado Costa: Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e L’analisi Dell’economia Agraria (CREA), Centro di Ricerca Ingegneria e Trasformazioni Agroalimentari, Via della Pascolare 16, 00015 Rome, Italy
Simone Figorilli: Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e L’analisi Dell’economia Agraria (CREA), Centro di Ricerca Ingegneria e Trasformazioni Agroalimentari, Via della Pascolare 16, 00015 Rome, Italy
Luciano Ortenzi: Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e L’analisi Dell’economia Agraria (CREA), Centro di Ricerca Ingegneria e Trasformazioni Agroalimentari, Via della Pascolare 16, 00015 Rome, Italy
Rossella Manganiello: Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e L’analisi Dell’economia Agraria (CREA), Centro di Ricerca Ingegneria e Trasformazioni Agroalimentari, Via della Pascolare 16, 00015 Rome, Italy
Roberto Ciccoritti: Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e L’analisi Dell’economia Agraria (CREA), Centro di Ricerca Olivicoltura, Frutticoltura e Agrumicoltura, Via di Fioranello 52, 00134 Rome, Italy
Francesca Cecchini: Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e L’analisi Dell’economia Agraria (CREA), Centro di Ricerca Viticoltura ed Enologia, Via Cantina Sperimentale 1, 00049 Rome, Italy
Massimo Morassut: Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e L’analisi Dell’economia Agraria (CREA), Centro di Ricerca Viticoltura ed Enologia, Via Cantina Sperimentale 1, 00049 Rome, Italy
Noemi Bevilacqua: Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e L’analisi Dell’economia Agraria (CREA), Centro di Ricerca Viticoltura ed Enologia, Via Cantina Sperimentale 1, 00049 Rome, Italy
Giorgio Colatosti: Agenzia Regionale per lo Sviluppo e l’Innovazione dell’Agricoltura del Lazio (ARSIAL), Via Rodolfo Lanciani 38, 00162 Rome, Italy
Giovanni Pica: Agenzia Regionale per lo Sviluppo e l’Innovazione dell’Agricoltura del Lazio (ARSIAL), Via Rodolfo Lanciani 38, 00162 Rome, Italy
Daniele Cedroni: Agenzia Regionale per lo Sviluppo e l’Innovazione dell’Agricoltura del Lazio (ARSIAL), Via Rodolfo Lanciani 38, 00162 Rome, Italy
Francesca Antonucci: Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e L’analisi Dell’economia Agraria (CREA), Centro di Ricerca Ingegneria e Trasformazioni Agroalimentari, Via della Pascolare 16, 00015 Rome, Italy

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 3, 1-17

Abstract: Eurasian grapevine is a widely cultivated horticultural plant worldwide, but it is more susceptible to powdery mildew. In recent years, the high cost and negative environmental impact of calendar-applied sulfur fungicides are leading research to find alternative remedies. In this study, the early prediction (three days) of the first appearance of powdery mildew infection, on two different Italian grapevine cultivars, was detected through a partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLSDA). The treatment indications of the “PLSDA” models (treatments according to the predictive model) were compared with those of the “Standard” (treatments according to the established agricultural practice of the area). This allowed the early containment of the disease, preventing its subsequent propagation. The model was built based on weather-climate data and phytopathological information collected on the “Untreated” control cultivar to monitor the natural spread of the disease (three years of training and two of tests). For both the cultivars and the two test years (2021 and 2022), the “PLSDA” models early predicted the first appearance of fungal disease, reducing the treatment number (about four) with respect to “Standard”. In addition, analyses of key fruit quality parameters were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of treatment reduction.

Keywords: grapevine; Trebbiano; Sangiovese; fungal infection; predictive statistical model; partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLSDA); qualitative analyses (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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