Transboundary River Water Availability to Ravi Riverfront under Changing Climate: A Step towards Sustainable Development

Naveed Ahmed (), Haishen Lü (), Shakeel Ahmed, Oluwafemi E. Adeyeri, Shahid Ali, Riaz Hussain and Suraj Shah
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Naveed Ahmed: State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Haishen Lü: State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Shakeel Ahmed: Ravi Urban Development Authority, 151-A, Abubakar Block, Garden Town Lahore, Lahore 54770, Pakistan
Oluwafemi E. Adeyeri: School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China
Shahid Ali: Department of Civil Engineering, National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences, Foundation for Advancement of Science and Technology, Lahore 54000, Pakistan
Riaz Hussain: Lahore Central Business District Authority (LCBDA), 60-A, Garden Block, Garden Town, Lahore 54000, Pakistan
Suraj Shah: College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 4, 1-23

Abstract: The Indus Water Treaty allocated the water of the Ravi River to India, and India constructed the Thein Dam on the Ravi River. This study investigates the water availability of the Ravi Riverfront for both pre-dam and post-dam scenarios augmented with pre-flood, flood, and post-flood sub-scenarios. The study also investigates river water availability for low and high magnitudes (Flow Duration Curves) and its linkages with climate change. The modified Mann–Kendall, Sen’s slope estimator, and Pearson correlation were used to investigate the river flows. It was found that there is a remarkable decrease in the river water by −36% of annual mean flows as compared to the pre-dam scenario. However, during the flood season, it was −32% at the riverfront upstream (Ravi Syphon Gauge). The reduction in water volume was found as 2.13 Million Acre Feet (MAF) and 1.03 MAF for maximum and mean, respectively, in the Rabi (Winter) season, and 4.07 MAF and 2.76 MAF for max and mean, respectively, in the Kharif (Summer) season. It was also revealed that 180–750 cusecs of water would be available or exceeded for 90% to 99% of the time at Ravi Riverfront during the flood season. The high flows were mainly controlled by temperature in the pre-dam scenario; presently, this water is stored in the Thein Dam reservoir. In contrast, the precipitation role is significant in the post-dam scenario, which means that the flows in the Ravi River are mainly due to base flow contributions and precipitation. This study is the first step in analyzing the river water availability of the Ravi Riverfront, which will ultimately address the associated problems and their solutions to decision-makers. Additionally, implementing an eco-friendly riverfront promotes urban sustainability in developed urban areas, such as Lahore City, and will lead to a comfortable and healthy lifestyle; this will only be possible with water availability in the Ravi Riverfront reach.

Keywords: flow duration curve; Indus Basin; Ravi River; riverfront; sustainable development; transboundary river; Thein Dam reservoir (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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