The Impact of Aging on Housing Market: Evidence from China

Rong Fu, Dong Deng and Tao Liu ()
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Rong Fu: College of Economics, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou 310018, China
Dong Deng: College of Economics, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou 310018, China
Tao Liu: Department of Sociology, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou 310018, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 5, 1-13

Abstract: In recent years, the Chinese government has gradually introduced the multi-child policy to control the aging phenomenon. The aging of the Chinese population has aroused international attention. How the aging of the Chinese population will affect housing prices makes this study focus on the question. This study fitted the housing demand curve using the CGSS database and found that the housing demand will continue to rise as residents enter middle age. After residents enter old age, housing demand shows a slow decline. Then, this study establishes the spatial Dubin model to analyze the influence mechanism of population aging on housing prices in China, and finds that aging has a positive impact on housing prices. However, with the intensification of the aging phenomenon in China, the benefits brought by the welfare housing distribution system to the elderly will be gradually consumed, and the insufficient supply of social labor force and the stagnation of total output, its positive impact on housing prices will gradually weaken or even become negative.

Keywords: aging; housing demand curve; house price; spatial Durbin model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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