Temporal Instability and Transferability Analysis of Daytime and Nighttime Motorcyclist-Injury Severities Considering Unobserved Heterogeneity of Data

Chamroeun Se, Thanapong Champahom, Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao, Panuwat Wisutwattanasak, Wimon Laphrom and Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha ()
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Chamroeun Se: Institute of Research and Development, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand
Thanapong Champahom: Department of Management, Faculty of Business Administration, Rajamangala University of Technology Isan, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand
Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao: School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand
Panuwat Wisutwattanasak: Institute of Research and Development, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand
Wimon Laphrom: Institute of Research and Development, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand
Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha: School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 5, 1-28

Abstract: Using motorcycle crash data from 2016 to 2019, this paper aims to uncover and compare the risk factors that influence the severity of motorcyclist injuries sustained in daytime and nighttime motorcycle crashes in Thailand. Mixed-ordered probit models with means and variances in heterogeneity were used to take into consideration unobserved heterogeneity. The temporal instability of risk factors was also extensively explored. The results show that male motorcyclists, speeding, fatigue, crashes in work zones, crashes on raised median roads, intersection-related crashes, crashes on wet roads, and crashes on unlit roads are all factors that are positively associated with the risk of death and serious injury in nighttime crashes. The presence of pillions, crashes on two-lane roads, crashes on depressed/flush median roads, crashes in rural areas, U-turn-related crashes, weekend crashes involving heavy vehicles, and head-on crashes are factors that were positively associated with risk of death and serious injury for both daytime and nighttime crashes. This study’s findings provide evidence that factors that influence motorcycle accidents during the daytime and nighttime vary significantly. Additionally, nighttime crashes typically carried a higher risk of fatalities or serious injuries compared to daytime crashes. A discussion of policy recommendations is also provided.

Keywords: death and serious injuries; developing country; middle-income country; mixed ordered probit; random parameters; heterogeneity in means and variances (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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